KOF Forecasts of Tourism in Switzerland
Tourism is an important pillar of the Swiss economy, especially at regional level. Long-term trends and changes in the guest structure are of great importance for these regions. Therefore, it is critical to recognise changes at an early stage.
KOF has built up a broad knowledge base in the field of tourism over several years and has continuously improved and expanded its forecasting methods. The tourism forecast is based on a large number of macroeconomic variables developed by experienced researchers in the areas of inflation, the labour market and economic growth. In addition, high-frequency indicators are used to forecast the logistic demand.
Twice a year, at the beginning of the summer season in May and at the beginning of the winter season in October, the results of the KOF Tourism Forecast and selected international tourism indicators are published.
Trend in overnight stays (including forecast)
News
KOF Tourism Forecast: solid visitor numbers in winter
KOF is forecasting an increase of 270,000 overnight stays for the coming winter. This growth will be driven by both domestic and overseas guests. KOF expects to see a slight decline in overnight stays in the summer of 2024.
Swiss tourism shown to be crisis-proof
The tourism industry in Switzerland has managed to overcome the pandemic-related disruption and will continue to grow during the 2023 tourism year, according to KOF’s forecast. The domestic tourism sector is proving robust in the face of the slowdown in the global economy.
COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine and appreciation of the Swiss franc: impact on tourism in Switzerland
Much higher energy prices and the threat of recession abroad are depressing sentiment in the tourism industry. However, KOF expects to see growth in overnight stays thanks to the ongoing recovery from the pandemic and the strength of domestic tourism.
Domestic tourists guarantee success of Switzerland’s winter season
KOF’s Tourism Forecast concludes that Swiss tourism is on the road to recovery. While the summer season got off to a good start, tourism in winter should maintain this momentum and exceed pre-pandemic levels. The total number of overnight stays during the 2022 winter season will increase by almost 2.4 million (up 16 per cent).
Recovery of Swiss tourism continues; growth despite Ukraine war
This year’s KOF Tourism Forecast is characterised by several one-off effects. For example, the Omicron wave of COVID-19 slowed the rapid recovery of the tourism sector during the winter. There are currently fewer guests from eastern Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine. In addition, the weakening of the global economy is expected to have a negative impact on tourism demand. Despite all of this, the recovery that began after the pandemic will continue and will generate growth.
Publications
Contact
KOF FB Konjunktur
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland