Forecasts & Indicators
The KOF regularly publishes various indicators and forecasts. These are partly based on the results of the KOF economic surveys among Swiss companies as well as external data.
News about Forecasts and Indicators:
Swiss economy hit by international trade conflict
The United States’ erratic trade policy has caused even more economic uncertainty in the second quarter of 2025. Tariffs are also weighing on the economic outlook. Data revisions last year mean that KOF is sticking to its forecast of real, sport-adjusted GDP growth of 1.4 per cent for 2025 (1.0 per cent unadjusted) despite a deterioration in its assessment. Its GDP growth forecast for 2026, however, has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 1.5 per cent (1.9 per cent unadjusted).
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, June 2025
The KOF MPC figure for 5 June 2025 is -0.12. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.
KOF Employment Indicator falls to lowest level in four years
The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen again in the second quarter of 2025 and is now at its lowest level since the beginning of 2021, when the Swiss labour market was still being affected by the COVID pandemic. The Swiss labour market is expected to see subdued growth in both the current quarter and the next.