Forecasts & Indicators
The KOF regularly publishes various indicators and forecasts. These are partly based on the results of the KOF economic surveys among Swiss companies as well as external data.
News about Forecasts and Indicators:
US tariffs impacting the Swiss economy
KOF continues to expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.4 per cent, excluding major international sporting events, for this year. The outlook for 2026 has worsened owing to the deterioration in competitive conditions caused by US tariffs and ongoing heightened economic uncertainty. GDP adjusted for sporting events is expected to rise by 0.9 per cent next year. This is 0.6 percentage points less than was forecast in the summer. GDP growth of 1.6 per cent is predicted for 2027.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, September 2025
The KOF MPC figure for 11 September 2025 is -0,26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.
Business situation easing slightly
Business activity at Swiss firms is currently slightly stronger than it was at the beginning of the year and in July 2024. This is shown by the KOF Business Situation Indicator, which rose for the third month in a row. However, the outlook for the next six months is somewhat gloomier – mainly owing to subdued expectations in the manufacturing and wholesale sectors. This is revealed by the results of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys of nearly 7,000 firms across the private sector.
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