Press Releases

For the second consecutive month, the Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in July. However, they have not yet recovered the losses incurred between March and May. Despite these increases, the indicators continue to suggest that the global economic growth rate will remain modest in 2025.

The KOF Economic Barometer decreases in June. After a moderate increase in the previous month, it now falls to its lowest level so far this year. The outlook for the Swiss economy deteriorates.

The United States’ erratic trade policy has caused even more economic uncertainty in the second quarter of 2025. Tariffs are also weighing on the economic outlook. Data revisions last year mean that KOF is sticking to its forecast of real, sport-adjusted GDP growth of 1.4 per cent for 2025 (1.0 per cent unadjusted) despite a deterioration in its assessment. Its GDP growth forecast for 2026, however, has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 1.5 per cent (1.9 per cent unadjusted).

The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise slightly in June, breaking a sequence of three consecutive declines. However, the outlook for global economic growth remains lower in the first half of the year than expected at the beginning of the year.

The KOF MPC figure for 5 June 2025 is -0.12. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

The KOF Economic Barometer increases in May. After decreasing in the previous month, it remains below its medium-term average. Despite the rise in the KOF Economic Barometer, the outlook for the Swiss Economy remains subdued.