Press Releases

The KOF Economic Barometer decreases in December. After an increase in the previous month, it now falls slightly below its medium-term average. The outlook for the Swiss Economy has dampened.

Assessments of the outlook for the Swiss economy have deteriorated slightly compared with the autumn forecast. KOF is slightly revising downwards its forecasts. It expects real gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2024. Sport-adjusted GDP will grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 and by 1.7 per cent in 2026. The main reason for these downward revisions is the sluggish performance of the international environment – particularly in Germany and France.

The KOF MPC figure for 12 December 2024 is 0.14. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

Global interdependencies are gradually recovering, as the KOF Globalisation Index for 2022 shows. Globalisation is returning to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. Economic globalisation in particular has provided a boost here, while social and political globalisation continue to suffer from the after-effects of the pandemic. The most globalised country is the Netherlands, followed by Switzerland and Belgium.

The Global Barometers remain relatively stable in December, after the noticeably increases recorded in the previous month. The Coincident Barometer slips slightly in relation to November, but ends the quarter at a more favourable level than the previous quarter, signalling overall an acceleration in global economic growth. The Leading Barometer, in turn, increases this month and suggests an increase in confidence among companies and consumers in relation to the end of the previous quarter.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in November. After falling below the 100 mark in October for the first time since January, the KOF Economic Barometer reaches the 100 mark again this month. The Swiss economy develops steadily albeit without strong dynamics.