Press Releases

The KOF MPC figure for 11 April 2024 is -0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged and confirmed that incoming data is in line with its previous medium-term inflation outlook.

The Leading Global Barometer rises in April, partially offsetting the substantial decline of the previous month to remain close to the neutral level of 100 points. The Coincident Barometer falls slightly this month, confirming that it peaked in January before pointing to a subsequent phase of rather sluggish global economic activity.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls slightly in March and now stands at 101.5 points. The Barometer had recorded repeated increases since mid 2023 and is now stabilizing above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains positive.

For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.

In March 2024, the Leading Global Barometer records a setback, and the Coincident Barometer rises slightly after a fall in the previous month. The results reflect a sluggish development of global economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 and suggest that this will only improve slowly in the coming months.

The KOF MPC figure for 7 March 2024 is -0,39. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

In February, the KOF Economic Barometer decreases slightly after having risen three times in a row. On the back of these previous increases, the Barometer remains above average. Despite the slight cooling, the rather positive economic signals in Switzerland remain intact.

After seven consecutive months of increases, the Global Barometers decline in February. The Coincident Barometer remains below average, while the Leading Barometer remains above average. This decline is a warning that the recovery process is fragile.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell again at the beginning of the year. Weak foreign demand in particular is weighing on the export sector. However, there is a silver lining on the horizon: firms are much more confident about the next six months than they were previously.

Starting from a fairly high level, the KOF Employment Indicator fell slightly in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. This decline is the result of the deteriorating outlook in the retail, hospitality and manufacturing sectors. Overall, however, the Swiss labour market is expected to perform well in the current and coming quarters.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises for the third consecutive month in January. This is the first time since March last year that it rises above its medium-term average. There are increasing signs that the Swiss economy will soon recover.

The KOF MPC figure for 25 January 2024 is 0.09. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

The Global Barometers continue to increase, signalling an acceleration in world economic growth at the turn of the year. However, despite the seventh consecutive rise, the Coincident Barometer remains below its average of 100 points. The Leading Barometer reaches its highest level since 2021.

The KOF Economic Barometer rose moderately again in December and now stands at 97.8 points. It is thus once again moving one step closer to its long-term average. The movements at below-average levels that have been observed since the beginning of 2023 are thus continuing. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the start of 2024 therefore remains subdued despite a further improvement.

The KOF MPC figure for 14 December 2023 is 0.00. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

In its latest forecast, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for major sporting events to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2023. The Swiss economy will be supported primarily by domestic activity until 2025, while foreign trade will be curbed by the weak global economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.3 per cent in 2024 and will continue to rise until the end of the forecast period in 2025.

The Global Barometers recorded their sixth consecutive increase, ending the year at a higher level than 12 months ago. The results signal that the recovery in global growth is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The Coincident Barometer remains below 100 points, while the Leading Barometer has already established itself at a level above neutral.

Globalisation increased moderately in 2021. However, it has not fully recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains below its 2019 level. The most globalised country is Switzerland, followed by Belgium and the Netherlands. While economic globalisation is showing signs of recovery, social globalisation is characterised by ongoing restrictions owing to the pandemic.

In November, the KOF Economic Barometer rises moderately and now stands at 96.7 points. It is thus continuing to approach its long-term average. Since the mid of 2023, it has thus remained at a stable, albeit below-average level. Therefore, the outlook for the Swiss economy remains moderate.

Both Global Barometers improve in November. The Leading Global Barometer points to an acceleration in world economic growth in the three to six months ahead. The Coincident Barometer is rising despite the monetary tightening in several countries, but it remains below its historical average.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell in October for the second month in a row. Following a modest decline in the previous month, business activity cooled significantly in October. Meanwhile, upward pressure on prices is decreasing and companies’ wage expectations are lower than last autumn.

Healthcare expenditure in Switzerland will continue to grow over the forecasting period (2022 to 2025). However, its share of gross domestic product will stabilise at around 11.5 per cent. These are the key findings of KOF’s healthcare expenditure forecast, which was prepared with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.

The KOF Employment Indicator shows a slight decrease in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the indicator is still clearly in positive territory. Employment is therefore expected to continue to rise in the next months. Employment is only declining in the manufacturing sector.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer remains at an almost unchanged level and stands now at 95.8 points. It thus remains slightly below its long-term average. Together with the small movements of the Barometer since the summer, this indicates a weak but stable development of the Swiss economy towards the end of this year.

The KOF MPC figure for 26 October 2023 is 0.29. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

The Leading Global Barometer rises for the fourth month in a row, moving more clearly into the over 100 points range, suggesting an above average acceleration in world economic growth over the next three to six months. The slight decline in the Coincident Barometer shows that this framework is likely to be reached gradually.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains pessimistic in September and now stands at 95.9 points, following a revised value of 96.2 in August. The barometer thus remains below its long-term average. The economic barometer, which has been weakening in recent months, indicates a cooling Swiss economy for the end of 2023.

The Swiss economy is currently characterised by two opposing trends. On the one hand, private consumption and the robust labour market are supporting the domestic economy. On the other, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on the export-driven Swiss economy. All in all, KOF expects real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for major sporting events, to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year.

The KOF MPC figure for 14 September 2023 is 0.09. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council reiterated that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long.

The Global Barometers rise in all regions for the third consecutive month in September. Although still below average, the Coincident Barometer shows some improvement in overall economic conditions, while the Leading Barometer reaches its historical average of 100 points.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly again in August and thus settled at the below average level observed since May. At 91.1 points, the barometer continues to signal below-average development. Accordingly, the Swiss economy has to expect a somewhat unfavourable economic situation in the near future.

This year’s round of pay bargaining could be another meagre one in real terms for wage earners. Companies expect to see wages increase by an average of only 2 per cent over the next twelve months. Since they are forecasting inflation of over 2 per cent for the same period, they are not anticipating any real pay increases. This is the result of a KOF survey of almost 9,000 businesses in Switzerland.

In August, the Global Barometers increase for the second month in a row across the regions. The Coincident Barometer continues to slowly improve in 2023 while the Leading Barometer advances more rapidly, approaching almost the neutral level of 100 points.  

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell significantly in July. Business activity is less buoyant than it has been for two years. In contrast, upward pressure on prices is decreasing in almost all sectors of the economy. The shortage of skilled workers is no longer quite as acute as it was recently.

Although the KOF Employment Indicator is falling in the third quarter of 2023, it remains in clearly positive territory. The deterioration in the employment outlook is limited to individual sectors which are affected more by global economic trends. Overall, we still expect to see employment growth in the Swiss labour market.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises slightly in July. After three consecutive declines, it is now going up again for the first time, but at 92.2 points, it still shows a below-average development. The economic environment remains difficult for the Swiss economy.

The KOF MPC figure for 27 July 2023 is 0.25. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long.

The Global Barometers increase slightly this month, oscillating in the below-average range. This reflects the difficulties in the recovery process of world economic activity in 2023. This month’s increase occurred in all three regions analysed.

In June, the KOF Economic Barometer stands at 90.8 points. The outlook for the Swiss economy thus remains at a below-average level for the second half of the year.

The KOF MPC figure for 15 June 2023 is 0.06. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long.

The Swiss economy is currently stable. However, the subdued performance of the global economy is also making economic activity in Switzerland more sluggish. The labour market, on the other hand, is in very good shape. Private consumption is also boosting economic activity. Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.7 per cent next year.

After two months of relative stability, the Global Barometers weakened in June, reflecting the challenging recovery of the world economic activity in 2023. The decline was influenced by the deterioration of the economic environment in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and in Europe.

KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper have surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the upcoming vote on the Climate Change Act and other topical economic policy issues relating to climate change. There is disagreement among survey respondents as to whether the measures contained in the counter-proposal are sufficient to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.  

In May, the KOF Economic Barometer falls significantly and now stands at 90.2 points. This is the second time in a row that the barometer has fallen sharply. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the middle of 2023 is thus deteriorating further and remains at a below-average level.

The Global Barometers rise only slightly in May, reflecting continued weakness in global economic activity in most countries and moderate optimism, partly related to the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell in April. It had hardly moved in the previous month. Performance varied from sector to sector. Although the Swiss economy is faltering slightly, there are also positive signals. Supply chain problems, for example, have largely dissipated and the upward pressure on prices is decreasing.

The KOF MPC figure for 4 May 2023 is 0.19. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.

Starting from a high level, the KOF Employment Indicator is decreasing slightly. However, above-average employment growth on the Swiss labour market can still be expected in the current quarter.

In April, the KOF Economic Barometer declines, dipping slightly lower under its medium-term average value. At the moment, the Swiss economy cannot really find its footing.

The levels of the Global Barometers remained almost unchanged in April, halting the recovery tendency observed earlier this year.  The result was mainly influenced by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, where the indicators retreated after two noticeably rises.

Together with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), KOF surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the Swiss banking sector and the takeover of Credit Suisse and received 167 responses. Almost half of the economists would have preferred a takeover by the state (and possible later sale) as a solution. More than two-thirds of the survey participants fear a deterioration in the stability of the Swiss banking sector as a result of the takeover.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell marginally in March. It now points just slightly below its long-term average value. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy has hardly changed compared to the previous month.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will rise by 1.1 per cent in real terms this year and by 1.7 per cent next year. Thanks to the mild winter, the energy crisis has had less of an impact on the economy than was feared. However, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates are slowing economic growth. In addition, the turbulences in the banking sector are causing uncertainty worldwide.

The KOF MPC figure for 16 March 2023 is 0.20. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that there is an elevated level of uncertainty about the inflation outlook.

The Global Barometers rise for the second consecutive month in March 2023, fueled by the favorable evolution in the economic environment of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.

The KOF Economic Barometer in February rose for the third month in a row. It is now exactly at its long-term average value. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy has improved further.

The Global Barometers increase in February for the first time since November 2022 across all regions, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region standing out for the improved climate in the region.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose significantly in January. While firms’ business had deteriorated in the autumn, a clearly positive trend was visible in January. The operating outlook for the coming months is more encouraging than before.

After the KOF Employment Indicator declined slightly at the end of 2022, the labour market outlook in particular is now improving. The willingness of Swiss companies to create jobs remains unbroken despite economic risks.

The KOF MPC figure for 2 February 2023 is -0.04. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that price pressures remain strong, as high energy costs are spreading throughout the economy.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises at an accelerated pace in January and for the second month in a row. It nonetheless remains below its medium-term average. But the outlook for the Swiss economy at the beginning of the year is considerably less gloomy than it was in autumn last year.

The Global Barometers continue to signal a pronounced world economic slowdown at the beginning of 2023. Both indicators record a fall for the month and reach levels which – excluding the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since 2009. The latest results are particularly depressed by developments of the indicators in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.

The KOF Economic Barometer increased significantly in December and now stands at 92.2 points. This is the first time the barometer has risen after a prolonged downturn. The outlook for the Swiss economy is thus brightening slightly for the beginning of 2023, although remaining at a low level.

The KOF MPC figure for 15 December 2022 is 0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation is expected to stay above the ECB’s inflation target until 2025.

KOF’s latest economic forecast predicts that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for sporting events, will increase by 2.1 per cent in real terms this year. It will only grow by 1 per cent in the coming year owing to the global economic slowdown. KOF has made very few changes to its economic outlook and has hardly revised its latest forecast at all compared with the autumn forecast.  

The Global Barometers continue to signal a clear world economic slowdown at the end of 2022. After a second successive fall, both indicators reach levels which – apart from the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since the financial crisis in 2008/2009.

The COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a noticeable drag on globalisation. This is confirmed by the latest KOF Globalisation Index. The coronavirus crisis and the related restrictions have caused the largest and fastest decline in international flows in modern history. There is little change in the top ten most globalised countries, except that Switzerland and the Netherlands have swapped places. Switzerland has therefore regained its position as the most globalised country in the world.

In November, the KOF Economic Barometer decreased again slightly and stands now at 89.5 points. This is the fifth time in a row that the barometer has fallen. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains subdued in the coming months.

The Swiss economy is investing more and more money in hardware and software. In particular, the use of digital technologies such as robots, big data applications and artificial intelligence is being expanded in many sectors. This is a key finding of the KOF Innovation Survey commissioned by Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI).

Healthcare spending will rise by 2.9 per cent this year. The growth rate will increase slightly to 3.6 per cent in 2023 and decrease again slightly to 3.1 per cent in 2024. Compared with economic output, healthcare expenditure will rise less sharply than in previous years. These are the key findings of KOF’s health expenditure forecast, which was prepared with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.

The Global Barometers fall once again in November after a slight improvement in the previous month. With the results, the Coincident Barometer reaches its lowest level since August 2020 and the Leading Barometer is the second lowest since June 2020, beating only the level of last August.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell significantly in October. Although business remains predominantly encouraging, the last time the Business Situation Indicator was lower than it is at present was in June 2021. The signs of a slowdown in business activity in the manufacturing sector are unmistakable. This is shown by the results of the latest Business Tendency Surveys for October.

For the first time in over two years the KOF Employment Indicator is falling. Starting from a high level, the employment outlook for the next three months in particular is deteriorating. The manufacturing sector is being especially squeezed.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer decreased and now stands at 90.9 points. As a result, the barometer is below its long-term average for the sixth time in a row. The outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months therefore remains subdued.

The KOF MPC figure for 27 October 2022 is 0.49. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation will stay above the ECB’s target for an extended period.

The Coincident Barometer rises after eight consecutive falls and the Leading Barometer increases for the second month in a row. Because the improvement is only modest, the level of the indicators continues to reflect an adverse scenario for world economic growth in the coming months.

KOF is forecasting that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 per cent this year. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects real gross domestic product adjusted for sporting events to rise by 1 per cent next year. Uncertainty about gas supplies during the winter has increased sharply throughout Europe. KOF’s baseline scenario assumes, however, that there will be no formal rationing on a major scale here.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged in September and now stands at 93.8 points, coming from a revised 93.5 points in August. However, the barometer remains below its long-term average. The barometer, which has been weakening in recent months, augurs a cooling of the Swiss economy for the end of 2022.

The Global Barometers move in opposite directions in September. The Coincident Barometer falls for the eighth consecutive month while the Leading Barometer increases, but continues to fluctuate at a low level, signaling continued pessimism in the global economic growth perspective for the coming months.

The KOF MPC figure for 8 September 2022 is 0.53. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation is far too high and is likely to stay above the ECB’s target for an extended period.

In August, KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the country’s pension system and the upcoming vote on the ‘AHV 21’ reforms and received 133 responses. A clear majority of economists are (more or less) in favour of these reforms from an economic point of view. Raising the qualifying pension age is seen by more than half of survey respondents as the most important way of improving the financial situation of the AHV.

The Global Barometers fall once again in August, signalling a slowdown in world growth for this quarter. The Coincident Barometer decreases for the seventh month in a row, while the Leading Barometer drops again after remaining stable in the previous month. The results reflect a bleak perspective for world economic growth in the coming months.

The Business Situation Indicator for Swiss companies fell slightly in July. However, it is still higher than it was at the beginning of this year, and the last time the situation was more encouraging than at present was in July 2011. However, firms are much less optimistic than before about their business prospects for the coming six months. The headwinds facing the Swiss economy are likely to strengthen in the near future.

The KOF Employment Indicator has risen this quarter as well. The renewed increase is due to modest improvements in almost all sectors. Employment expectations for the next three months, on the other hand, are being dampened slightly.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in July for the third month in a row. After a moderate drop in the previous month, the fall is now accelerating again. The Swiss economy is likely to develop sluggishly in autumn.

The KOF MPC figure for 21 July 2022 is 0.53. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation is undesirably high.

The Global Barometers overall continue to signal a strong deceleration in world economic growth in 2022. In July, the Coincident Barometer declines for the sixth consecutive month, while the Leading Barometer continues to be 10 points below the historical mean of 100 points. The results reflect a gloomy outlook for global economic growth in the coming months.

In June, the KOF Economic Barometer declines again and now stands at 96.9 points. It is thus now below its long-term average for the second time in a row. The outlook for the Swiss economy in the upcoming months therefore remains subdued.

According to the KOF economic forecast, the Swiss economy will grow by 2.7 per cent this year and by 1.6 per cent next year. The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine is slowing the global economy. Nevertheless, Switzerland is holding its own thanks to domestic consumption and a relatively low inflation rate compared with other countries.

The KOF MPC figure for 9 June 2022 is 0.20. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that it will make sure that inflation returns to the ECB’s two per cent target over the medium term.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in May and now stands at 96.8 points. The barometer is thus now below its long-term average. The Swiss economy is thus likely to develop moderately over the next few months.

The Global Barometers fall for the second consecutive month, reflecting negative factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the COVID-19 responses in China and the worldwide very high inflation. The Coincident Barometer remains below the historical mean of 100 points, while the Leading Barometer drops further from the mean, reflecting the increased risk of a more pronounced slowdown in several countries.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for firms in Switzerland rose in April, reaching its highest level since recovering from the financial crisis in 2010/2011. As far as developments in the near future are concerned, however, companies are more cautious than they have been in recent months. The positive impact of the Swiss economy’s recovery from the pandemic is outweighing the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since it was first introduced in 1992. Its renewed increase is due in particular to the hospitality industry.

After dipping below the long-term average in March, the KOF Economic Barometer rises in April again. The opportunities for parts of the economy due to the recovery from the pandemic are currently dominating the strains from the international environment.

The KOF MPC figure for 14 April 2022 is 0.51. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that initial signs of above-target revisions in long term inflation measures warrant close monitoring.

The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report, the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute is part of the Joint Economic Forecast as a consortium partner of the ifo Institute, Munich. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track.

In March, KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed 110 economists at Swiss universities on their assessments of inflation and monetary policy in Switzerland. More than half of these respondents reckon that the key interest rate will be positive in the next five years. An interest-rate move by the SNB is not expected until the ECB has raised its key rate.

The Global Barometers decrease in April, likely reflecting shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in China. The Coincident Barometer is now below the historical mean of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. In addition, the more noticeably drop in the Leading Barometer signals the perspective of a stronger deceleration in world growth for the coming months.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell by 5.6 points in March and now stands at 99.7. This is just slightly below its long-term average. The recovery from the economic consequences of the pandemic is now overshadowed by the war in Ukraine. Overall, a moderate development of the Swiss economy can be expected for the near future.