KOF Surprise Indicator

The KOF Surprise Indicator is a business cycle indicator on a quarterly basis. It is based on the semantic identification of survey answers of the KOF survey in the Swiss manufacturing industry. It is calculated if and to what extent firms have been surprised in their plans. The KOF Surprise Indicator identifies the growth path of the Swiss economy and allows for accurate estimates of the current growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

external page Current GDP forecast based on the KOF Surprise Indicator.

The KOF Working Paper No. 297 systematically evaluated the KOF Surprise Indicator. Read how and why the KOF Surprise Indicator provides a sound basis for reliable forecasts external page here.

For more information see: external page Müller, C. and E. Köberl (2008): Business Cycle Measurement with Semantic Filtering: A Micro Data Approach, KOF-Arbeitspapiere/Working Papers No. 212, November, Zurich.

For GDP forecast exercises based on the KOF Surprise Indicator see: external page Köberl, E. (2011): "Capacity Utilisation and Macro Dynamics from a Micro Perspective"