KOF Nowcasting Lab
The KOF Nowcasting Lab is a real-time platform for testing current and next-quarter GDP estimates in different countries
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator of a country’s economic activity. However, official estimates are published with a lag. In the academic literature there are various methods of forecasting the current quarter’s GDP using previously available and higher-frequency data.
The external pageKOF Nowcasting Labcall_made is a real-time platform for testing these methods and simultaneously provides an overview of the current economic situation. The models are updated daily for a number of countries based on large amounts of data, and the results are published.
The KOF Nowcasting Lab in brief:
What is the KOF Nowcasting Lab and what is it not?
The Nowcasting Lab is not an official KOF forecast. Rather, it should be understood as an ongoing estimate of real GDP growth based on the economic data available for the current and next quarters. No expertise or assessments are included in the Nowcasting Lab’s forecasts. The estimates are based solely on the data-driven mathematical results of the models. All information about the models, methods and data used is transparent and can be found here. The Nowcasting Lab project is experimental in nature. Not each one of the model-based projections seems to make always sense. Still, we hope that you see the potential of the project.
How does the KOF Nowcasting Lab work?
The KOF Nowcasting Lab consists of three interrelated parts:
- A real-time database in which the daily data status of over 3,000 time series is stored. The data status that a forecaster had on a given day can therefore be replicated at any time and tested using new methods.
- A website that clearly displays the forecast output.
- The forecast models that automatically generate forecast updates. These are currently four standard models: bridge equations, MIDAS models, unrestricted MIDAS models (U-MIDAS) and a dynamic factor model.
What does the KOF Nowcasting Lab involve?
The KOF Nowcasting Lab produces daily forecasts of the real GDP growth rates for Switzerland, the euro area, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium and Austria. These forecasts can be viewed and analysed on the external pagewebsitecall_made.
Transparency is key. It is quick and easy to identify precisely which models, specifications and data are being used and which published data have caused each forecast update. In addition, a combined forecast derived from the individual models as well as the forecasts of each individual model are presented. Further information on the models used and their specifications is available at external pagewww.nowcastinglab.orgcall_made.
KOF Nowcasting Lab tutorial video:
Contact
ETH Zürich
KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zurich
Switzerland