2018

The KOF Economic Barometer closes 2018 with 96.3 points. More clearly than last month, the indicator lies below its long-term average. The high growth levels of the Swiss economy observed at the beginning of the year, can therefore no longer be maintained. As a result, the economic outlook for early 2019 is more clouded.

Worldwide globalisation continues to develop flatly. The flattening in globalisation that began in 2015 is continuing. Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium are the most globalised countries in the world. The current KOF Globalisation Index reflects economic, social and political globalisation since 1970.

The KOF MPC figure for 13 December 2018 is 0.14. The ECB communicated confidence in the sustained convergence of inflation to the aim even after the end of net asset purchases.

Despite the fact that growth in GDP for the third quarter of 2018 was negative, the Swiss economy remains in fairly good shape on the whole. KOF expects GDP to rise by 2.6 per cent in 2018. Consumer spending will become a key driver of economic activity over the forecast period. Unemployment will continue to fall owing to the robust performance of the economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP growth will be slightly lower at 1.6 per cent in 2019 before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020.

The situation of young people on the European labour market improved between 2015 and 2016. This is one of the main findings of the latest evaluation produced by the KOF Youth Labour Market Index (KOF YLMI). As in the previous year, the most encouraging situation is found in Denmark, followed by Switzerland. The list of countries ranking in the top ten of the index has not changed, although some of these countries have switched places.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls for the second time in a row in November. With a level of 99.1 points, the Barometer is now slightly below its long-term average again. For the Swiss economy, the fairway is becoming slightly more difficult.