Only Low Economic Growth Expected in the Euro Area
Economic growth in the euro area will be weak this year. After 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, it will only reach 0.3 percent in the following quarters. This is forecasted by the three institutes ifo from Munich, KOF from Zurich and Istat from Rome.
Industrial production will stagnate in the first quarter of 2019 and then grow twice by 0.2 percent. Nevertheless, the labour market is developing strongly: the number of employees rose by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent, the lowest rate since the end of 2008. At the same time, wages rose significantly. Both developments could support demand from private households in the coming period: According to the institutes' forecast, it will grow by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2019 and by 0.4 percent in the coming quarters. Risks for the forecast lie in an expansion of trade conflicts, in a hard Brexit and in the general weakening of the global economy.
Eurozone Economic Outlook
This quarterly publication is prepared jointly by the German external pageifo Institutecall_made, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, and the Italian external pageIstatcall_made Institute. The forecast results are based on consensus estimates building on common macroeconomic forecast methods by the three institutes. Details and graphs can be found in the right column.
Contact
KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland