KOF Economic Barometer: First Positive Signals

The KOF Economic Barometer rises by 9.8 points in June, from 49.6 (revised from 53.2) to 59.4. The negative tendencies of the indicator groups of the individual sectors, which had led to a halving of the barometer value since the beginning of the year, now seem to have been halted. The outlook for the manufacturing sector remains at a very low level, but is brightening up the strongest compared to the other sectors. Also starting from a very low level, the sets of indicators from other services and construction are sending slightly more positive signals. By contrast, the prospects for the hospitality industry and those of consumers remain bleak.

Within the manufacturing sector, all sub-indicators point in an upward direction. The outlook for the metal industry, which has slumped sharply in previous months, is now brightening up most strongly compared to other sectors. In a comparable manner, indicators from the mechanical engineering industry, the wood, glass, stone and earth industry, the electrical industry and the textile and clothing industry are sending a somewhat more positive signal. By contrast, the outlook for the chemical, pharmaceutical and plastics industry remains virtually unchanged.

The incipient trend reversal, starting from a historically low level, within the good producing sector (manufacturing and construction) is mainly due to indicators for the assessment of order backlogs, production and the overall business situation. The assessment of intermediate goods also contributes to the somewhat brighter development of the good producing sector.