KOF Economic Barometer: Rise to a similar level as at the end of the financial crisis

After an increase of 3.6 points, the KOF economic barometer reaches its 10-year high in September, with a value of 113.8 points. Once again it is well above its long-term average. This increase is primarily due to bundles of indicators, which include the accommodation and food service activities, foreign demand and the economic sector other services. Furthermore, bundles of indicators relating to the manufacturing sector and private consumption also bolster the positive signal. By contrast, slight negative signals can be observed in the construction sector.

The positive signals within the manufacturing sector can mostly be attributed to indicators from the electrical industry, the wood, glass, stone and earths industry and the metal industry. By contrast, the other sectors comprised by the manufacturing industry remain virtually unchanged compared with the previous month.

Within the goods producing sector (manufacturing and construction) the different groups of indicators point in different directions. The strongest negative contribution is provided by indicators for the development of order backlogs, followed by indicators for the purchase of intermediate goods and for the assessment of the inventories. On the other hand, positive signals are sent out by indicators for assessing the general business situation and by indicators for employment outlook. The assessment of obstacles to production activity also provides a positive contribution, but less so than in the previous month.