Another decline of the KOF Economic Barometer – Swiss economy nevertheless on the road to recovery

The KOF Economic Barometer falls by 3.5 points to 129.8 points in July. In June, the barometer stood at 133.3 (revised from 133.4) and in May at 143.6 (revised from 143.7). Despite this second consecutive decline, the KOF Economic Barometer's above-average reading points to a very favourable economic development in the coming months. The outlook for manufacturing, foreign demand, construction, financial and insurance services as well as private consumption remains favourable but is not quite as positive as in the previous month. In contrast, the outlook for accommodation and food service activities and for other services is improving.

In the goods producing sector (manufacturing and construction), indicators for all aspects of business activity are weakening. The clouding is particularly pronounced for the general business situation, the competitive position as well as export and employment prospects.

From an industry perspective, the indicators for almost all sub-sectors of manufacturing are also weakening. The biggest declines are in the metal industry, in the electrical industry and in the chemicals, pharmaceuticals and plastics industries. Despite these declines, the levels of the industry indicators and those of the indicators for aspects of business activity in the good producing sector are all above average in a longer-term comparison.