Confirmed slowdown tendency of Global Barometers

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors

In July, the Western Hemisphere and Europe contribute negatively 1.5 and 1.1 points, respectively, to the decrease in the Coincident Global Barometer, while the Asia, Pacific, and Africa region remained relative stable with small positive contribution of 0.1 points. The drop in the global indicator is at least partly caused by the additional supply restrictions related to the Russian-Ukrainian War. The gradual recovery of the Chinese economy, after easing the mobility restrictions adopted to combat an outbreak of Covid-19, may have positively influenced the Asia, Pacific, and Africa region slightly for the second consecutive month. Nevertheless, the region remains responsible for more than half of the 39.2-point fall in the global indicator during the previous 12 months. The graph below illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from the historical mean of 100 points.

Among the coincident sector indicators, only the Services sector increases this month. All the remaining sectors decrease, especially Trade, with a fall of 8.5 points. With this result, all the indicators move further below the historical mean of 100 points. The Construction sector records its lowest level since July 2020 (64.7 pts.)

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors

The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. In July, the global indicator remains stable at 86.2 points. As with the Coincident Barometer, the Western Hemisphere and Europe contribute negatively to the Leading Barometer result. In contrast, the Asia, Pacific, and Africa region moves in the opposite direction, partially compensating the more noticeably decreases of previous months by contributing 1.7 points to the development of the Leading Barometer. Global growth expectations for 2022 have been worsening as a result of continuing conflict between Ukraine and Russia and the adoption of more restrictive monetary policies in various countries. These factors have contributed to keeping the global indicator below the long-term average.

Three of the five leading indicator sectors decrease in July. Only the indicators for the general state of the Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations) and Industry increase this month. All indicators remain far below the historical mean of 100 points.