December

The KOF Economic Barometer increased significantly in December and now stands at 92.2 points. This is the first time the barometer has risen after a prolonged downturn. The outlook for the Swiss economy is thus brightening slightly for the beginning of 2023, although remaining at a low level.

The KOF MPC figure for 15 December 2022 is 0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation is expected to stay above the ECB’s inflation target until 2025.

KOF’s latest economic forecast predicts that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for sporting events, will increase by 2.1 per cent in real terms this year. It will only grow by 1 per cent in the coming year owing to the global economic slowdown. KOF has made very few changes to its economic outlook and has hardly revised its latest forecast at all compared with the autumn forecast.  

The Global Barometers continue to signal a clear world economic slowdown at the end of 2022. After a second successive fall, both indicators reach levels which – apart from the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since the financial crisis in 2008/2009.

The COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a noticeable drag on globalisation. This is confirmed by the latest KOF Globalisation Index. The coronavirus crisis and the related restrictions have caused the largest and fastest decline in international flows in modern history. There is little change in the top ten most globalised countries, except that Switzerland and the Netherlands have swapped places. Switzerland has therefore regained its position as the most globalised country in the world.