2023

The KOF Economic Barometer rose moderately again in December and now stands at 97.8 points. It is thus once again moving one step closer to its long-term average. The movements at below-average levels that have been observed since the beginning of 2023 are thus continuing. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the start of 2024 therefore remains subdued despite a further improvement.

The KOF MPC figure for 14 December 2023 is 0.00. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

In its latest forecast, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for major sporting events to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2023. The Swiss economy will be supported primarily by domestic activity until 2025, while foreign trade will be curbed by the weak global economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.3 per cent in 2024 and will continue to rise until the end of the forecast period in 2025.

The Global Barometers recorded their sixth consecutive increase, ending the year at a higher level than 12 months ago. The results signal that the recovery in global growth is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The Coincident Barometer remains below 100 points, while the Leading Barometer has already established itself at a level above neutral.

Globalisation increased moderately in 2021. However, it has not fully recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains below its 2019 level. The most globalised country is Switzerland, followed by Belgium and the Netherlands. While economic globalisation is showing signs of recovery, social globalisation is characterised by ongoing restrictions owing to the pandemic.

In November, the KOF Economic Barometer rises moderately and now stands at 96.7 points. It is thus continuing to approach its long-term average. Since the mid of 2023, it has thus remained at a stable, albeit below-average level. Therefore, the outlook for the Swiss economy remains moderate.