Inflation and monetary policy
Consumer prices in Switzerland increased in February 2022 in a year-on-year comparison at the fastest rate since the financial crisis. At an annual rate of 2.2% in February, inflation is outside the range that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) equates with price stability. In addition, the Swiss franc has appreciated considerably against the euro over the past months. Accordingly, the inflation rate and the monetary policy stance of the SNB have been widely discussed recently. Is the inflationary pressure of a transitory or permanent nature? Is the monetary policy stance of the SNB rather too restrictive or too expansionary? To make the views of research economists in academia on the topic visible to the public, the KOF, together with the external pageNeue Zürcher Zeitungcall_made (NZZ), conducted in March 2022 a survey.
KOF contacted 785 economists for the survey. We received responses from 110 economists from 17 institutions.
Results
1. Inflation persistence
The inflationary pressure currently observed in Switzerland is high. This inflationary pressure is of a
2. Cause of inflation
Inflationary pressure can arise mainly from an increase in costs or a pick-up in demand. Current inflation in Switzerland is
3. Monetary policy of the SNB
Overall, how do you assess the current monetary policy stance of the Swiss National Bank (SNB)? Are the implemented monetary policy measures too expansionary, appropriate, or too restrictive? The current monetary policy stance of the SNB is
4. Policy rate in five years
The SNB policy interest rate has been in negative territory for about seven years. Where do you see the SNB policy interest rate five years in the future? The policy rate will be
5. Interest rate hike ECB
The likelihood that the SNB will implement an interest rate hike before the European Central Bank (ECB) is
6. Swiss Franc
Where do you see the (nominal effective) exchange rate of the Swiss franc in one year? In nominal terms, the Swiss franc will
7. Inflation in five years
Where do you see the inflation rate in Switzerland in about five years? In the medium term, the inflation rate will be
8. ECB and Ukraine war
In particular in Europe, the Ukraine war is leading to rising inflation on the one hand and slowing down economic development on the other. How do you think the ECB should deal with this shock? The monetary policy stance of the ECB should for this reason
About this survey
KOF is acting as a mediator between academic researchers and the public. It aims to make the voices of research economists heard. KOF categorises economic researchers as those from Swiss research institutions who have published scientifically.
The survey was conducted together with the external pageNeuen Zürcher Zeitungcall_made.
The press release can be found here. The NZZ article (in German) can be found external pagehere.call_made
Contact
KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland
KOF FB Konjunkturumfragen
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland