Inflation and monetary policy

Consumer prices in Switzerland increased in February 2022 in a year-on-year comparison at the fastest rate since the financial crisis. At an annual rate of 2.2% in February, inflation is outside the range that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) equates with price stability. In addition, the Swiss franc has appreciated considerably against the euro over the past months. Accordingly, the inflation rate and the monetary policy stance of the SNB have been widely discussed recently. Is the inflationary pressure of a transitory or permanent nature? Is the monetary policy stance of the SNB rather too restrictive or too expansionary? To make the views of research economists in academia on the topic visible to the public, the KOF, together with the external page Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), conducted in March 2022 a survey.

KOF contacted 785 economists for the survey. We received responses from 110 economists from 17 institutions.

Results

1. Inflation persistence

The inflationary pressure currently observed in Switzerland is high. This inflationary pressure is of a

2. Cause of inflation

Inflationary pressure can arise mainly from an increase in costs or a pick-up in demand. Current inflation in Switzerland is

3. Monetary policy of the SNB

Overall, how do you assess the current monetary policy stance of the Swiss National Bank (SNB)? Are the implemented monetary policy measures too expansionary, appropriate, or too restrictive? The current monetary policy stance of the SNB is

4. Policy rate in five years

The SNB policy interest rate has been in negative territory for about seven years. Where do you see the SNB policy interest rate five years in the future? The policy rate will be

5. Interest rate hike ECB

The likelihood that the SNB will implement an interest rate hike before the European Central Bank (ECB) is

6. Swiss Franc

Where do you see the (nominal effective) exchange rate of the Swiss franc in one year? In nominal terms, the Swiss franc will

7. Inflation in five years

Where do you see the inflation rate in Switzerland in about five years? In the medium term, the inflation rate will be

8. ECB and Ukraine war

In particular in Europe, the Ukraine war is leading to rising inflation on the one hand and slowing down economic development on the other. How do you think the ECB should deal with this shock? The monetary policy stance of the ECB should for this reason

About this survey

KOF is acting as a mediator between academic researchers and the public. It aims to make the voices of research economists heard. KOF categorises economic researchers as those from Swiss research institutions who have published scientifically.

 The survey was conducted together with the external page Neuen Zürcher Zeitung.

The press release can be found here. The NZZ article (in German) can be found external page here.

Contact

Dr. Klaus Abberger
  • LEE G 121
  • +41 44 632 51 56

KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092 Zürich
Switzerland

Dr. Nina Mühlebach
  • LEE G 113
  • +41 44 633 86 09

KOF FB Konjunkturumfragen
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092 Zürich
Switzerland

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