Limitation Initiative ("Begrenzungsinitiative")
On 27 September 2020 the Swiss citizens will vote on an initiative concerning the free movement of persons named “For a moderate immigration” (limitation initiative / initiative de limitation / Begrenzungsinitiative / iniziativa per la limitazione). The initiative calls for an autonomous regulation of immigration and thus for the termination of the agreement with the EU on the free movement of persons. The economic consequences of this agreement for Switzerland are currently under public discussion. In order to make the views of research economists in academia on the initiative visible to the public, the KOF, together with the external pageNeue Zürcher Zeitungcall_made (NZZ), conducted in August 2020 a survey on this topic.
For this survey 873 economists were contacted. Responses were received from 209 economists from 19 institutions.
Results
Question 1: Free movement of persons
From an economic point of view, if you compare the regime of an “autonomous regulation of immigration” with the regime of “free movement of persons” under the assumption that the remaining bilateral agreements are retained: How do you assess the autonomous regulation compared to the free movement of persons? From an economic point of view, the autonomous regulation is
Question 2: Bilateral agreements
If the agreement on the free movement of persons with the EU is terminated, the continuance of the bilateral treaties with the EU could be at stake. In your opinion, how do the bilateral agreements affect the economic prosperity per capita of persons already resident in Switzerland? The impact of the bilateral agreements is
Question 3: Hourly wages
Does the free movement of persons, depending on the wage category, have a rather positive, a rather negative, or no effect on the level of hourly wages of local employees? The effect on the level of hourly wages for
low wages is
medium wages is
high wages is
Question 4: Social security system
Does immigration from the EU under the current regime of free movement of persons represent in the short/long term a relief or a burden for the overall Swiss social security system? Or is it overall neutral? For the overall Swiss social security system, immigration under the free movement of persons is
in the short term
in the long term
Question 5: Structural change
Does the free movement of persons accelerate or delay structural change of the Swiss economy? Structural change is
About this survey
KOF is acting as a mediator between academic researchers and the public. It aims to make the voices of research economists heard. KOF categorises economic researchers as those from Swiss research institutions who have published scientifically.
The survey was conducted together with the external pageNeue Zürcher Zeitungcall_made.
Contact
KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland