Short-term forecasting methods and survey experiments

What we are researching

Our focus is on models and methods for macroeconomic short-term forecasting and nowcasting. Nowcasting (i.e., the attempt to capture the current economic situation) can be valuable as macroeconomic data is usually only available with a delay.

Furthermore, we specialise in conducting surveys among firms, households, experts and policy makers, which include elements from experimental research such as randomised information or scenario treatments and are therefore also referred to as "survey experiments". Our aim here is to investigate how economic agents form their expectations, plans and actions and how they adjust them in the face of macroeconomic events or new information. Surveys are a way of investigating macroeconomic topics that are difficult to research with existing data.

How we conduct research

The section works quantitatively, i.e., on the basis of empirical data. The forecasting models developed are macro or time series econometric in nature and in some cases include elements from the field of machine learning. Our focus here is on models for mixed and high-frequency data. We also use microeconometric methods to analyse survey data.

Practical applications

As a practical application of its nowcasting research, the section is responsible for the KOF Nowcasting Lab together with other researchers and software developers. The Nowcasting Lab is an automated code database website environment. It produces nowcasts and short-term forecasts for GDP in various countries using different forecasting models and large amounts of data. The projections are updated daily and published on the website external pagehttps://nowcastinglab.orgcall_made.

Forecasting activities

The section also contributes to the KOF's quarterly economic forecast. More specifically, it analyses and forecasts the international economic environment for the Swiss economy and is responsible for the publication KOF International Forecasts. The section also represents KOF at the external pageAssociation of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE)call_made.