On the Role of Subjective Wellbeing in Retrospective Voting Hypothesis

Political economists have long been interested in understanding the extent to which citizens consider the past performance of political party representatives when choosing whether to cast a vote in their favor. The retrospective voting hypothesis summarizes the wide consensus that voters evaluate diagnostic information, such as economic trends and personal financial conditions, to reward good political performance, and punish leaders who are corrupt or incompetent. A corollary of this voting hypothesis is that voters’ retrospection can sometimes be ‘blind’, because voters reward (punish) the government for improvements (damages) to their personal living conditions, even when these changes cannot be attributed to any implemented policy. Existing studies primarily look at the effect of financial and economic outcomes on voting decisions.

These observations keep the debate open to whether citizens consider their level of wellbeing, when evaluating the performance of their policy makers. In particular, the idea of ‘blind’ retrospection raises the question of whether citizens are capable of keeping policy makers accountable only for the changes in wellbeing that are objectively derived from implemented policies.

Wellbeing has a significant impact on voters’ decision

In their recent paper, the authors assess these issues, while proposing an extension to the methodology used in the existing literature. Considering the recent attention given by policymakers to the institution of new indicators that account for living conditions beyond the mere assessment of monetary and financial status, the authors propose to test the retrospective voting theory on measures of subjecting wellbeing (SWB), such as self-reported life satisfaction.

Liberini, Redoano and Proto’s research informs the debate by showing that the subjective perception of wellbeing significantly influences the political decision of British voters. They find that citizens who declare a high level of SWB are more likely to cast their vote in favor of the ruling party. For example, those who declare themselves as highly satisfied are 1.6 per cent more likely to support the prime minister party in future elections. By contrast, a 10 per cent increase in family income leads to a 0.18 per cent increase in an individual’s support for the incumbent. The authors also analyze the effect of swing voters’ SWB on the incumbent party support  (i.e. the voters who do not hold a strong political view and ideological support for a party). As it is reasonable to expect, the effect of SWB on the incumbent party support seems to be stronger than for the full sample. For example, being satisfied with life increases the probability of supporting the ruling party by about two per cent.

Widowhood, a significant variable regarding wellbeing awarness

Most importantly, the authors show that citizens seem unable to distinguish between the changes in their subjective wellbeing which are not imputable to the government, and those for which the government is likely to be responsible. They arrived at this conclusion through an analysis of the effect of widowhood on voting intentions. This is a shock that it is well known to have a strong and significant impact on subjective wellbeing – especially on women – and at the same time it can be reasonably assumed to be independent from government actions. Widows are between 10 and 12 per cent less likely to be pro-incumbent in the two years after the death of their partner than other individuals in the control group. (For men, this effect seems to exist as well, but it is of a smaller magnitude)

In the context of recent events observed on the international political scene, this result is important, because it suggests that political victory of new entrants could be due to factors unrelated to the assessment of past policies implemented by the incumbent or to the lack of confidence in the future of the economy.