Editions

KOF is forecasting that the Swiss economy will grow by 1.6 per cent this year. A quarter of this increase will be due to the European Football Championships being held in Germany and the Olympic Games in Paris. KOF economist Alexander Rathke explains the background to this effect.

KOF economist Samad Sarferaz talks about the methodological refinement of KOF’s economic forecasts and their underlying models. He also gives an up-to-date assessment of the Swiss economy, inflation and monetary policy.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector rose very slightly in May. It did not fall again in the previous month and remained stable (see chart G 4). In May, firms were more confident than before about business activity over the next six months. There are increasing signs that the Swiss economy may have bottomed out.

Switzerland’s COVID-19 policy was federal in nature, with the cantons taking specific support measures to limit the economic slump caused by the various challenges. Recent unpublished analysis of these measures suggests that they managed to stabilise business expectations in terms of demand, production, employment and the general outlook as soon as they were announced.

KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm talks about Switzerland’s relationship with the European Union and analyses the opportunities and risks posed by the new negotiations for the bilateral agreements.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose modestly in April (see chart G 7). The situation in the manufacturing sector eased, while it deteriorated slightly in the construction industry. Companies’ inflation forecasts are falling and private consumption could provide stimulus to the Swiss economy.