Publication KOF International Forecasts  

Switzerland is a small open economy, the international economic environment is important for the Swiss business cycle. The KOF puts a special emphasis on forecasting the international economy using a variety of quantitative forecasting models and tools. The quarterly publication KOF International Forecasts presents these international forecasts, including data histories, along with various indicators and forecasts related to the Swiss export sectors in the form of graphs, tables and maps. The KOF International Forecasts present the international economy from a Swiss perspective and are made for, amongst others, Swiss export-oriented firms, Swiss financial market institutes, and public or private institutions in Switzerland with a focus on the international economy.

The set of forecasted international series includes world GDP from a Swiss perspective, GDP in different world regions, world trade, OECD and euro area GDP and expenditure components, inflation, short-term and long-term interest rates, output gaps and GDP in Switzerland’s main trading partners, foreign currency nominal and real exchange rates, amongst others.

The leading and coincident indicators for the Swiss export sectors include sentiment and confidence indicators for Switzerland and the EU based on business tendency surveys (BTS) conducted by KOF and its European partner institutes as well as BTS based business situation, order backlog and export expectation indices for Swiss export-oriented firms, amongst others.

The forecasts related to Swiss foreign trade include sectoral exports and sectoral terms of trade. In addition, the past and projected future performance of Swiss exports is compared with foreign demand indicators and with the export performance of other countries. Moreover, a sectoral and regional disaggregation of past exports is presented.

The KOF International Forecasts are sent out each quarter by e-mail in pdf format. A supplementary Excel file provides the forecasts, including data histories, in digital form. Printed copies, in booklet style, are available on request.