KOF Business Situation: Indicator Falls for the Third Time in a Row
- KOF Business Situation Indicator
- KOF Bulletin
The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss Private Economy is still on the decline in February (see G 13). The indicator has fallen for the third month in a row and is thus being propelled along a downward trajectory. It is becoming harder for Swiss businesses to navigate through increasingly treacherous economic waters.
The various sectors performed differently in February. The business situation became more problematic in the retail and manufacturing sectors (see T 3). On the other hand, the situation remained unchanged for financial and insurance service providers. The downward trend was countered above all by the construction and project engineering sectors, both of which reported improvements in the business situation. Wholesalers, the hotel and catering companies and the other service providers were last surveyed in October. At the time, all three sectors reported a worsening of their business situation.
Performance trends are also different when considered in regional terms (see G 14). On the one hand, the situation worsened in the Lake Geneva region, Ticino, the Zurich region and - albeit marginally - Eastern Switzerland. On the other hand, North-West Switzerland, Central Switzerland and Espace Mittelland recorded a strongly improved business situation.
Explanation:
Graph G 13 presents the KOF business situation across all sectors covered by the survey. The business situation in sectors which are surveyed on a quarterly basis is kept constant during the intervening months.
Graph G 14 presents the business situation in the main regions pursuant to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The regions are coloured according to business situation. The arrows in the regions indicate the change in the business situation compared to the previous month. An upward-pointing arrow, for instance, indicates that the situation has improved over the previous month.
The KOF business situation is based on more than 4,500 reports from businesses in Switzerland. Each month, companies are surveyed in the economic sectors of industry, retail trade, construction, project engineering and financial and insurance services. Businesses in the hotel and catering sector, wholesalers and other service providers are surveyed on a quarterly basis in the first month of each quarter. Among other questions, the companies are asked to assess their current business situation. They may class their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “bad”. The balance of the current business situation is the percentage difference between the answers “good” and “bad”.