No. 183, April

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector fell again in March after initially not continuing its downward trend in the previous month (see chart G 8). Firms’ expectations about their business activities over the next six months are slightly more confident than they were in the previous month. Conditions in the Swiss economy remain challenging.

Cryptocurrency markets are rallying to new highs. Simultaneously, another type of cryptoasset is gaining relevance: stablecoins. Unlike Bitcoin & Co, stablecoins aim to maintain a steady value against a national currency. They facilitate trade on cryptoexchanges, underpin the DeFi ecosystem and promise to be a stable store of value. Unregulated, however, they come with significant risks. KOF economists Hugo van Buggenum, Hans Gersbach and Sebastian Zelzner discuss regulatory measures.

The sharp rise in energy prices since 2022 has led to much debate. But how important are energy prices really for companies? And through which channels are companies exposed to energy prices? To answer this question, researchers from KOF, EPFL and the University of Lausanne conducted a company survey funded by the Enterprise for Society (E4S) Foundation and the MTEC Foundation.

According to the KOF Economic Forecast, the global economy will not pick up speed again until the second half of the year. The loss of household purchasing power caused by the high inflation rates of the past two years will dampen private consumption in the short term. In addition, the more challenging funding conditions and the high level of political uncertainty are weighing on investment momentum in many countries.

Michael Graff, Co-Head of the Research Division Macroeconomic Forecasting and Data Science, explains his views on the successful initiative for a 13th monthly AHV pension payment and the future of the welfare state in an age of demographic change. He also reveals what plans he has for his retirement.