Nowcasting Lab: KOF launches real-time platform for testing GDP estimates

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator of a country’s economic activity. However, official estimates are published with a delay.

Big Data and machine learning play a significant role

The academic literature contains several methods of forecasting the current quarter’s GDP using previously available and higher-frequency data. The Nowcasting Lab is a real-time platform for testing these methods. At the same time, it provides an overview of the current state of the economy. The models used are updated daily for a number of countries based on large amounts of data (‘Big Data’), and the results are published.

The KOF Nowcasting Lab supplements KOF’s quarterly forecasts rather than producing official forecasts. It should be understood as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on the economic data available for the current and next quarters. Unlike KOF’s quarterly economic forecasts, the Nowcasting Lab’s forecasts do not incorporate any judgmental expertise. The estimates are based solely on the data-driven mathematical results of the models, which learn independently of the past and thus continue to develop automatically (‘machine learning’).

Daily forecasts for Switzerland, the euro area and the major European countries

The KOF Nowcasting Lab produces daily forecasts of the growth rates of real GDP in Switzerland, the euro area and its member countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain), the United Kingdom and Sweden. These forecasts can be viewed and analysed on the website.