April

The KOF MPC figure for 30 April 2020 is -0.35. As a response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) shock, the ECB decided to further improve longer-term refinancing conditions.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in April more than ever before in its history. Within a very short period of time, it thus drops to a level (63.5 points) comparable to the 2009 financial crisis. Only in the first three months of 2009 the barometer values were still slightly lower than at present. The Swiss economy is in crisis mode.

Over the next few months, the euro area will slide into recession. This is the forecast of the ifo Institute in Munich and KOF in Zurich in their Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO). Economic output is likely to have shrunk by 2.3 percent in the first quarter and will shrink by another 10.5 percent in the second quarter; for the third quarter of 2020, the researchers are forecasting growth of 8.7 percent. All figures are quarter over quarter.

In the April 2020 edition, the Global Leading Barometer and the Global Coincident Barometer have fallen sharply, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy. The second consecutive decrease in the two barometers shows that the economies of all regions were seriously shaken by the pandemic.

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. This is what the leading economics research institutes - amongst them the ifo Institute and KOF Economic Institute - expect in their spring report. For next year, they are forecasting a recovery and growth of 5.8 percent.

Using four scenarios, KOF has calculated the short-term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the most positive scenario, Switzerland must expect to lose CHF 22 billion in value added between March and June. In the most negative scenario, this loss rises to 35 billion francs. The high costs are largely driven by international developments.