November

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in November for the second time in a row, after a brief recovery in the summer. The barometer currently stands at 103.5 points, 2.8 points lower than in October (revised from 106.6 to 106.3 points). The barometer is thus moving towards its long-term average, which means that the outlook for the Swiss economy remains subdued also in view of the current pandemic situation.

Healthcare expenditure will increase by 3.1 per cent in 2020, slightly less than last year (3.4 per cent). Expenditure is expected to increase more sharply in the next two years. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer services were provided in certain areas of healthcare. These are the findings of the KOF Healthcare Expenditure Forecast, which has been produced with the help of research funding from comparis.ch.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers rise in November, signaling continuity in the tendency of recovery in world economic activity, after having given slightly less positive signals in the previous month. The favorable overall development was mainly driven by the Asia, Pacific and Africa regions. 

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose significantly in October. When asked about the level of demand going forward, however, some sectors became more cautious over the course of the month. Specific questions on the COVID-19 pandemic reveal that currently around 10 per cent of the businesses surveyed fear for their survival. In the hospitality industry this figure is as high as one in three firms. More than 60 per cent of companies are suffering from weaker demand.

The KOF Employment Indicator is continuing to recover following its historic slump in the second quarter of 2020. However, the Indicator remains firmly in negative territory at minus 7.1 points. Businesses in the hospitality, wholesale and industrial sectors are especially pessimistic.