March

The KOF Economic Barometer rose to 117.8 points in March and now is as high as it was last in summer 2010.The Barometer thus signals a rapid economic recovery for the coming months.

The euro area is poised to begin its economic recovery. In the first quarter, economic output is expected to have fallen by a further 0.4 percent compared with the previous quarter, when it shrank by 0.7 percent. This is the consensus of three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. The second quarter is expected to see growth of 1.5 percent over the first quarter, followed by 2.2 percent in the third.

Coronavirus will continue to set the tone for economic activity around the world, across Europe and in Switzerland this year. According to the KOF Economic Forecast, the economy in Switzerland will gradually recover and return to its pre-crisis levels in the third quarter. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects gross domestic product to grow by 3.0 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year.

The KOF MPC figure for 11 March 2021 is 0.14. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council has confirmed that the medium-term inflation outlook remains below the ECB’s inflation aim.

The Global Economic Barometers increase considerably in March, also reflecting the initial success in vaccination programs in some countries and optimism regarding the possibility of achieving control over the pandemic in the coming months. However, the results are still heterogeneous among regions.