May

The KOF Economic Barometer once again reaches a historical high. The slight decline that the barometer underwent in the second half of 2020 has been replaced by continuing strong increases in the spring of this year. Once again, the barometer is well above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the middle of 2021 can be regarded as very positive, provided that the containment of the virus continues to progress.

Switzerland’s tourism sector is poised for a recovery this year following its pandemic-induced slump. Domestic tourists and travellers from other European countries at least will soon be returning, according to KOF’s forecast. In contrast, the prospects for any normalisation in the situation for long-distance and business travellers are bleak.

The Global Economic Barometers increase considerably in May for the third month in a row, signaling an acceleration in the global economic activity since the first quarter of 2021. All investigated regions improve both their assessment of the current situation and expectations for the near future.

The recovery of the Swiss economy is progressing in leaps and bounds. The upward trend in the Business Situation Indicator, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, continued at an accelerated pace in April. Firms are also much more confident about developments over the coming months than they were in the previous month and at the beginning of this year. However, the availability of intermediate products is becoming a growing concern for companies.

The KOF Employment Indicator is climbing sharply and is now only slightly below its long-term average. This rise is being driven by more positive employment prospects: for the first time since the beginning of the COVID crisis there are more firms that plan to increase their headcount over the next three months than those that expect to cut staff.