KOF Employment Indicator: outlook for the Swiss labour market improving significantly
The KOF Employment Indicator is climbing sharply and is now only slightly below its long-term average. This rise is being driven by more positive employment prospects: for the first time since the beginning of the COVID crisis there are more firms that plan to increase their headcount over the next three months than those that expect to cut staff.
The KOF Employment Indicator rose significantly in April and now stands at minus 1.8 points. In the first quarter of 2021 it was down at minus 6.3 points (revised upwards from minus 8.2 points). The indicator has thus compensated for a large part of the slump it suffered owing to the COVID crisis a year ago and is now only slightly below its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss labour market has thus improved significantly over recent months.
The employment indicator is calculated from the quarterly KOF Business Tendency Surveys. The evaluations for the second quarter are based on the responses of more than 4,500 firms that were surveyed in April about their employment plans and expectations. In particular, these firms' employment outlook – how they expect their staffing levels to change over the next three months – has clearly improved. Across all sectors the net balance is actually positive: for the first time since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis there are more firms planning to increase their headcount over the next three months than those planning to reduce their staffing levels.
KOF Employment Indicator (constantly updated)
Encouraging trend in most sectors
The overall indicator shows a broad-based recovery, with most sector-specific employment indicators having risen sharply. The majority of firms in the insurance sector would like to increase their staffing levels, according to the surveys. The employment indicators for other services, construction and wholesalers are also slightly positive. Although the indicator for the manufacturing sector has recovered significantly, it remains slightly negative at minus 1.0. However, there are now more businesses in this sector that expect to expand their workforce over the next three months than those that are planning to cut back. The picture in the hospitality industry looks much gloomier. The employment indicator for this sector was minus 34.5 in April, which is very low from a historical perspective. Assessments of current employment levels have actually worsened compared with the first quarter. Nevertheless, even businesses in the hospitality sector expect to see an improvement over the next few months. The employment outlook for the next few months has brightened significantly compared with the first quarter.
The full press release can be found Downloadhere (PDF, 251 KB)vertical_align_bottom.
KOF Employment Indicator
The KOF Employment Indicator is calculated on the basis of the quarterly KOF Business Tendency Surveys. As part of these surveys, KOF asks private businesses in Switzerland to assess their current staffing levels and to state whether they intend to change them over the coming three months. A positive indicator figure means that the number of surveyed companies considering staff cuts in the reference quarter is smaller than the number of companies intending to create jobs. It has been shown in the past that these assessment anticipate actual trends on the labour market.
Click here for more information about the Indicator and its methodology.
Contact
KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland