March

The KOF Economic Barometer fell by 5.6 points in March and now stands at 99.7. This is just slightly below its long-term average. The recovery from the economic consequences of the pandemic is now overshadowed by the war in Ukraine. Overall, a moderate development of the Swiss economy can be expected for the near future.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, the Swiss economy will grow by just under 3 per cent this year – but only in the favourable scenario. If the Ukraine crisis spreads and all Russian energy and commodity exports to the EU and other regions are discontinued, the Russian trade in oil is withdrawn from Switzerland and the Swiss franc appreciates significantly, GDP growth of only 1 per cent would remain in 2022.

The KOF MPC figure for 10 March 2022 is 0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that it sees an increased likelihood of inflation stabilising at the inflation target over the medium term.

The Global Economic Barometers are dropping more sharply in March. This partly reflects the normalization of the global economy at the beginning of 2022 and is largely driven by changed assessments in Asia. The coincident indicator remains relatively strong, but the distancing of the leading indicator from the historical mean of 100 points may be a first sign of a stronger deceleration than previously forecast for the coming months.