October

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer decreased and now stands at 90.9 points. As a result, the barometer is below its long-term average for the sixth time in a row. The outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months therefore remains subdued.

The KOF MPC figure for 27 October 2022 is 0.49. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation will stay above the ECB’s target for an extended period.

The Coincident Barometer rises after eight consecutive falls and the Leading Barometer increases for the second month in a row. Because the improvement is only modest, the level of the indicators continues to reflect an adverse scenario for world economic growth in the coming months.

KOF is forecasting that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 per cent this year. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects real gross domestic product adjusted for sporting events to rise by 1 per cent next year. Uncertainty about gas supplies during the winter has increased sharply throughout Europe. KOF’s baseline scenario assumes, however, that there will be no formal rationing on a major scale here.