KOF Economic Barometer: At long-term average

The KOF Economic Barometer rose by 2.6 points in February from 97.4 (revised from 97.2). It is now exactly at its average value of 100. Since the last low in November 2022 (89.3), we are now observing an encouraging upward trend lasting for already three months.

The indicators from the manufacturing sector are primarily responsible for the increase, but the indicators for the consumer-related sectors and the export economy as well as, albeit somewhat less clearly, the financial sector are also sending positive signals. The other indicators included in the barometer show hardly any change, with the exception of the hotel and restaurant industry, where sentiment has deteriorated slightly.

In the producing sector (manufacturing and construction), the situation is assessed positively, especially in terms of the competitive situation and production, followed by the general business situation and the order backlog. The employment situation, on the other hand, is assessed somewhat more sceptically, which points to continuing recruitment problems on the labour market.

In manufacturing, the paper industry in particular is signalling an improvement, followed by the metal and textile industries. Slightly positive or neutral signals come from the other industries.