2024

The KOF Employment Indicator has recorded a further decline in the second quarter of 2024 compared with last quarter. The deterioration in employment prospects is particularly evident in the manufacturing and banking sectors. Overall, the indicator is approaching its long-term average.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in April after two consecutive months of decline. With this increase, the barometer settles in the slightly above-average range. The Swiss economic development is robust, but there is currently no strong boost in sight.

The KOF MPC figure for 11 April 2024 is -0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged and confirmed that incoming data is in line with its previous medium-term inflation outlook.

The Leading Global Barometer rises in April, partially offsetting the substantial decline of the previous month to remain close to the neutral level of 100 points. The Coincident Barometer falls slightly this month, confirming that it peaked in January before pointing to a subsequent phase of rather sluggish global economic activity.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls slightly in March and now stands at 101.5 points. The Barometer had recorded repeated increases since mid 2023 and is now stabilizing above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains positive.

For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.