2024
Subdued European economy weighing on Swiss prospects
Assessments of the outlook for the Swiss economy have deteriorated slightly compared with the autumn forecast. KOF is slightly revising downwards its forecasts. It expects real gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2024. Sport-adjusted GDP will grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 and by 1.7 per cent in 2026. The main reason for these downward revisions is the sluggish performance of the international environment – particularly in Germany and France.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, December 2024
The KOF MPC figure for 12 December 2024 is 0.14. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.
KOF Globalisation Index: globalisation is approaching its pre-pandemic level
Global interdependencies are gradually recovering, as the KOF Globalisation Index for 2022 shows. Globalisation is returning to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. Economic globalisation in particular has provided a boost here, while social and political globalisation continue to suffer from the after-effects of the pandemic. The most globalised country is the Netherlands, followed by Switzerland and Belgium.
Global Barometers confirm the values of the previous month, which had developed positively
The Global Barometers remain relatively stable in December, after the noticeably increases recorded in the previous month. The Coincident Barometer slips slightly in relation to November, but ends the quarter at a more favourable level than the previous quarter, signalling overall an acceleration in global economic growth. The Leading Barometer, in turn, increases this month and suggests an increase in confidence among companies and consumers in relation to the end of the previous quarter.
KOF Economic Barometer increases again
The KOF Economic Barometer rises in November. After falling below the 100 mark in October for the first time since January, the KOF Economic Barometer reaches the 100 mark again this month. The Swiss economy develops steadily albeit without strong dynamics.
Healthcare expenditure rises to over CHF 100 billion
Healthcare spending in Switzerland continues to grow. KOF expects this expenditure to rise from CHF 95 billion in 2023 to over CHF 106 billion in 2026, with per-capita healthcare expenditure likely to reach almost CHF 11,600 by the end of 2026. And the importance of the healthcare sector in terms of GDP will also continue to increase. These are the key findings of KOF’s health expenditure forecast, which was compiled with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.