KOF Employment Indicator remains stable

The KOF Employment Indicator currently stands at 3.9 points after having been 3.8 points in the third quarter of 2024 (revised from 5.2 points). Having peaked at 16.6 points in the second quarter of 2022, the indicator has fallen continuously ever since. However, the KOF Employment Indicator has stabilised since the first quarter of this year and has now recorded values of around 4.0 points for three consecutive quarters. The indicator is marginally above its long-term average overall. As it is slightly ahead of the actual employment trend in Switzerland, the latest figures point to moderate employment levels over the coming months.

The analysis conducted for the fourth quarter of 2024 is based on the responses of around 4,500 firms that were surveyed in October about their employment plans and expectations. On balance, the majority of participating businesses still consider their current staffing levels to be too low. The proportion of firms planning to increase their workforces in the next three months slightly exceeds the proportion of those planning to cut jobs.

Minor changes in the individual sectors

The picture varies from sector to sector. The employment outlook in manufacturing, construction, hospitality and banking has changed little compared with last quarter. The employment indicators for these industries remain close to zero. The KOF indicator for wholesale fell yet again from an already low level and is now firmly in negative territory (minus 12 points). Although the outlook for the insurance sector has also deteriorated, the employment indicator for this industry remains positive. By contrast, other service providers are planning to increase staffing levels considerably. This category includes key sectors in terms of employment, such as information and communication, real estate and housing, scientific and technical services, and health and social services.