KOF Business Situation: Indicator Declines at the End of the Year
- KOF Business Situation Indicator
- KOF Bulletin
Following a slightly bigger rise in the preceding month, the KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss Private Economy fell slightly in December (see G 11). However, despite this setback, companies’ business situation is considerably better than at the beginning of 2018. Having improved to some degree during the first half of the year, the business situation changed very little thereafter. The Business Situation Indicator has remained clearly in positive territory since summer 2018.
Despite the dark clouds hanging over the global economy, Swiss companies are currently reporting a stable situation.
In December, two trends dominated the various sectors. Following the improvement of the previous month, business activity slowed down in manufacturing, the retail trade, and financial and insurance services. By contrast, the trend in the construction-related building and project-engineering sectors had a stabilising effect. Wholesalers, the hotel and catering business and the other service providers were last surveyed in October. At the time, all three sectors reported a slight improvement in their business situation.
From a regional perspective, December's slowdown is particularly noticeable in Central Switzerland. The Situation Indicator also fell in the Zurich region and in Espace Mittelland, while changing very little in Eastern Switzerland, Northwestern Switzerland and the Lake Geneva region. In Ticino, the situation improved slightly.
Explanation
Chart G11 presents the KOF business situation across all sectors covered by the survey. The business situation in sectors which are surveyed on a quarterly basis remains constant during the intervening months.
Chart G12 presents the business situation in the main regions as specified by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The regions are coloured according to business situation. The arrows in the regions indicate the change in the business situation compared with the previous month. An upward-pointing arrow, for instance, indicates that the situation has improved over the previous month.
The KOF business situation is based on more than 4,500 reports from businesses in Switzerland. Each month, companies in the manufacturing, retail, construction, project-engineering, and financial and insurance services sectors are surveyed. Businesses in the hotel and catering sector, wholesalers and other service providers are surveyed on a quarterly basis in the first month of each quarter. The companies are asked, among other things, to assess their current business situation. They can classify their situation as either ‘good’, ‘satisfactory’ or ‘bad’. Their current business situation on balance is the percentage difference between their ‘good’ and ‘bad’ responses.
Further informations about the KOF Business Situtation
Contact
KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092
Zürich
Switzerland