No. 125, January

Following a slightly bigger rise in the preceding month, the KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss Private Economy fell slightly in December (see G 11). However, despite this setback, companies’ business situation is considerably better than at the beginning of 2018. Having improved to some degree during the first half of the year, the business situation changed very little thereafter. The Business Situation Indicator has remained clearly in positive territory since summer 2018.  

Youth apprenticeship is a major topic globally. In the United States, Colorado’s current pilot youth apprenticeships — implemented by CareerWise Colorado in partnership with companies, schools, state leaders and philanthropic partners — are the most compelling. The two pilot cohorts already under way are anecdotally very successful, with students and companies reaping rewards from participation.

Since 24 Sep. 2018, the US has imposed tariffs on Chinese products worth approx. USD 250 billion, thereby affecting 50% of all US imports from China. While it is often assumed that these tariffs cause direct harm to the US economy, arguments frequently disregard the fact that the US government can impose strategic tariffs which allow it to pursue an optimised customs strategy. This can result both in higher customs revenues and in the generation of welfare gains which are financed by Chinese exporters.

Whilst the Swiss economy remains robust overall, its growth rate will slow this year to 1.6 per cent. Gross domestic product (GDP) is then forecast to rise by 2.1 per cent in 2020. Private consumption will provide a significant boost to the economy over the forecast period. Unemployment will remain low thanks to solid economic growth.