2022

The KOF Business Situation Indicator fell in November for the second month in a row (see Chart G 9). Although its decline is slowing, it affected all of the sectors surveyed in November. The Swiss economy is slowing down slightly.

Almost all of Switzerland’s major trading partners are currently grappling with the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war and with self-inflicted problems. In this interview, Heiner Mikosch and Philipp Kronenberg from KOF’s International Forecasts Section analyse the current situation of the global economy

The spread of new digital technologies throughout the Swiss economy continues to increase. Robots, big data and artificial intelligence are being used not only to make internal processes more efficient, but also to develop and sell new products. This dual function keeps the Swiss economy competitive in the face of strong international competition.

The pharmaceutical sector has become the largest industry in Switzerland. Demand for its products is hardly subject to any cyclical fluctuations, and its declining prices have so far been more than compensated for by increases in production volumes. Employment in the sector has grown sharply, and pharmaceutical products contribute significantly to Switzerland’s goods trade surplus. However, the size of this industry also entails risks.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector fell significantly in October (see chart G 8). Although business remains predominantly encouraging according to the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, the last time the indicator was lower than it is at present was in June 2021.

Much higher energy prices and the threat of recession abroad are depressing sentiment in the tourism industry. However, KOF expects to see growth in overnight stays thanks to the ongoing recovery from the pandemic and the strength of domestic tourism.