No. 170, February

Although Swiss companies intend to curb their pace of investment in 2023, this slowdown does not point to a recession. According to the results of the semi-annual KOF Investment Survey, investment growth is likely to slow from a nominal 5.3 per cent last year to 3.9 per cent in the current year. Financial bottlenecks in particular are having a dampening effect on investment expectations.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose significantly in January (see chart G11). While firms’ business had deteriorated in the autumn, a clearly positive trend was visible in January. The operating outlook for the coming months is more encouraging than it was before.

The proportion of firms that use various IT security technologies and have appropriate strategies and individuals responsible for cyber security has risen sharply over time. This trend is accompanied by a decrease in the percentage of firms that have security issues. The growing protection of digital infrastructure may therefore pay off in the form of fewer cyber attacks.

What would a sharp rise in the price of oil mean for Swiss companies? What are the specific ways in which such a shock would be transmitted to their economic activities? And which sectors would be particularly affected? A KOF survey shows that uncertainty and higher costs are the factors that weigh the heaviest because, according to the managers surveyed, they cause sales losses and price increases.