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The euro area is poised to begin its economic recovery. In the first quarter, economic output is expected to have fallen by a further 0.4 percent compared with the previous quarter, when it shrank by 0.7 percent. This is the consensus of three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. The second quarter is expected to see growth of 1.5 percent over the first quarter, followed by 2.2 percent in the third.

Leading research institutes have sharply cut their economic forecasts for the euro area. For the fourth quarter of 2020, they now expect economic output to shrink by 2.7 percent. At the end of September, they were still expecting growth of 2.2 percent. The forecast was revised given the large number of coronavirus infections and the closure of parts of the economy, as was announced by ifo, KOF and Istat.

Economic growth in the euro area will level off in the fourth quarter, following a massive recovery in the third quarter. This is the consensus of three research institutes: ifo in Munich, Istat in Rome and KOF. However, reliable prognoses are difficult to make in the current environment because nobody knows how infection rates will develop, when a vaccine will become available, and what impact economic policy will have.

Economic output in the euro area suffered a sharp plunge in the second quarter, which is now being followed by a slower recovery. This is the expectation of the ifo Institute in Munich and KOF in Zurich in their Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO). The overall forecast is uncertain because nobody knows how the coronavirus pandemic will continue, how companies’ liquidity situations will develop, and how consumers will behave.

Over the next few months, the euro area will slide into recession. This is the forecast of the ifo Institute in Munich and KOF in Zurich in their Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO). Economic output is likely to have shrunk by 2.3 percent in the first quarter and will shrink by another 10.5 percent in the second quarter; for the third quarter of 2020, the researchers are forecasting growth of 8.7 percent. All figures are quarter over quarter.

The euro-area economy will pick up some momentum, according to three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. Economic growth will rise from its low rate of 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2019 to 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. The institutes expect the euro-area economy to continue to grow by 0.3 percent quarter on quarter in each of the first two quarters of the new year.

Growth in the euro area will be weak until the beginning of 2020, according to three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. They expect growth to be only 0.2 percent in the third quarter and to reach just 0.3 percent in each of the two following quarters. This is down from 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019.