Press Releases

In June, the Global Barometers are quite stable, following noticeable falls in the two previous months. The Coincident Barometer rises a little and sustains a level compatible with moderate growth of the world economy in the second quarter. However, the current stability of the Leading Barometer continues to reflect a skeptical outlook for global economic growth in the months ahead.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, the Swiss economy will grow by just under 3 per cent this year – but only in the favourable scenario. If the Ukraine crisis spreads and all Russian energy and commodity exports to the EU and other regions are discontinued, the Russian trade in oil is withdrawn from Switzerland and the Swiss franc appreciates significantly, GDP growth of only 1 per cent would remain in 2022.

The Swiss economy’s recovery is continuing despite the omicron wave at the beginning of the new year. This is demonstrated by the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for January. Although many employees are currently having to quarantine or self-isolate, a specially included KOF question reveals that the loss of sales due to staff absences is limited. The availability of intermediate products, on the other hand, remains a problem.

The KOF Employment Indicator is continuing to recover following its historic slump in the second quarter of 2020. However, the Indicator remains firmly in negative territory at minus 7.1 points. Businesses in the hospitality, wholesale and industrial sectors are especially pessimistic.

A special survey shows that a large proportion of Swiss companies are expecting a decline in total sales in 2020 due to the corona crisis. However, the KOF expects the economy in Switzerland to recover more quickly than in neighbouring countries. This year, GDP will fall by 5.1 per cent. The KOF is thus leaving its May forecast for 2020 virtually unchanged.