Press Releases

For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.

In its latest forecast, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for major sporting events to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2023. The Swiss economy will be supported primarily by domestic activity until 2025, while foreign trade will be curbed by the weak global economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.3 per cent in 2024 and will continue to rise until the end of the forecast period in 2025.

The Swiss economy is currently characterised by two opposing trends. On the one hand, private consumption and the robust labour market are supporting the domestic economy. On the other, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on the export-driven Swiss economy. All in all, KOF expects real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for major sporting events, to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year.

The Swiss economy is currently stable. However, the subdued performance of the global economy is also making economic activity in Switzerland more sluggish. The labour market, on the other hand, is in very good shape. Private consumption is also boosting economic activity. Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.7 per cent next year.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will rise by 1.1 per cent in real terms this year and by 1.7 per cent next year. Thanks to the mild winter, the energy crisis has had less of an impact on the economy than was feared. However, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates are slowing economic growth. In addition, the turbulences in the banking sector are causing uncertainty worldwide.

KOF’s latest economic forecast predicts that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for sporting events, will increase by 2.1 per cent in real terms this year. It will only grow by 1 per cent in the coming year owing to the global economic slowdown. KOF has made very few changes to its economic outlook and has hardly revised its latest forecast at all compared with the autumn forecast.  

KOF is forecasting that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 per cent this year. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects real gross domestic product adjusted for sporting events to rise by 1 per cent next year. Uncertainty about gas supplies during the winter has increased sharply throughout Europe. KOF’s baseline scenario assumes, however, that there will be no formal rationing on a major scale here.

According to the KOF economic forecast, the Swiss economy will grow by 2.7 per cent this year and by 1.6 per cent next year. The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine is slowing the global economy. Nevertheless, Switzerland is holding its own thanks to domestic consumption and a relatively low inflation rate compared with other countries.

The deteriorating epidemiological situation in Switzerland and throughout Europe has forced KOF to revise its economic forecast downwards. Under its baseline scenario, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.4 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2022. KOF is forecasting that an economic recovery will begin in the spring.

The Swiss economy is performing well, but its rate of growth will have returned to normal by the end of 2023. Gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.2 per cent in 2021 and by 3.6 per cent in 2022. Output is likely to have returned to its pre-crisis growth path by 2023.

The recovery has arrived - faster and stronger than previously expected. According to KOF’s economic forecast, gross domestic product will rise by 4 per cent this year. KOF expects to see growth of 2.8 per cent for 2022. Switzerland's economic output should already exceed its pre-crisis level in the current quarter thanks to strong growth in value added.

Coronavirus will continue to set the tone for economic activity around the world, across Europe and in Switzerland this year. According to the KOF Economic Forecast, the economy in Switzerland will gradually recover and return to its pre-crisis levels in the third quarter. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects gross domestic product to grow by 3.0 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year.

Having risen at the end of 2020, the KOF Business Situation Indicator fell in January. The second wave of the pandemic is clearly acting as a drag on some sectors. The proportion of companies that consider their survival to be at risk increases strongly in the hospitality sector. More than half of businesses in the hospitality industry are worried about possible bankruptcy. KOF expects to see a GDP growth of 2.1 per cent this year but no return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2021.

KOF expects GDP to fall by 3.5 per cent this year (baseline scenario). For 2021 and 2022 it expects to see growth of 3.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively. The second wave of the pandemic is placing a strain on the labour market. Employment is likely to stagnate in the winter half-year, and historically low wage increases are expected for the next two years. The number of companies that believe their survival is at risk has risen again.

The easing of the pandemic situation in the summer improved the outlook for economic activity. However, the rising number of new infections has heightened uncertainty again. KOF has therefore constructed two scenarios for the economy going forward. Under its baseline scenario it expects GDP to contract by 3.6 per cent this year (2021: growth of 3.2 per cent). If the pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, however, GDP is forecast to fall by 4.9 per cent (2021: growth of 1.5 per cent).

The business situation in most sectors has improved slightly. This is shown by the KOF Business Situation Indicator, which has risen significantly for the first time since April. However, the situation remains challenging. 14 per cent of companies believe that their survival is at risk. In terms of economic performance, KOF expects GDP to decline by 4.9 per cent this year. If a second wave of COVID-19 were to occur, GDP would be expected to fall by 6 per cent this year.

A special survey shows that a large proportion of Swiss companies are expecting a decline in total sales in 2020 due to the corona crisis. However, the KOF expects the economy in Switzerland to recover more quickly than in neighbouring countries. This year, GDP will fall by 5.1 per cent. The KOF is thus leaving its May forecast for 2020 virtually unchanged.

Economic activity should bounce back in the summer once the current lockdown restrictions are eased. Nevertheless, KOF expects value added to decline by a significant 5.5 per cent for 2020 as a whole. GDP growth should then rebound to 5.4 per cent in 2021. Spending on social security will rise sharply this year. At the same time, the federal government, municipalities and cantons must expect tax revenues to fall by a total of more than CHF 25 billion this year and the next years.

The battle to contain the coronavirus pandemic is posing significant challenges for the economy. Economic forecasts are subject to huge uncertainty. KOF is therefore presenting three scenarios that show how business activity could evolve going forward. The baseline scenario sees the Swiss economy sliding into recession in the first half of 2020. Under the mild scenario the disruption to business activity would abate more quickly, while in the negative scenario it would be much more severe.

The slowdown in global economic activity and the weak level of growth in the euro area – especially in German industry – are acting as a drag on the Swiss economy. At the same time the international risks have abated somewhat. However, today’s general election in the United Kingdom could fuel further uncertainty. KOF continues to expect GDP growth of 0.9 per cent for 2019 and has slightly lowered its forecasts for 2020 and 2021 to 1.8 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.

The signals coming from the Swiss economy have deteriorated recently. The international environment has also changed. The outlook for the global economy has become less upbeat. KOF is therefore lowering its forecast for economic growth this year and next.

Despite the fact that growth in GDP for the third quarter of 2018 was negative, the Swiss economy remains in fairly good shape on the whole. KOF expects GDP to rise by 2.6 per cent in 2018. Consumer spending will become a key driver of economic activity over the forecast period. Unemployment will continue to fall owing to the robust performance of the economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP growth will be slightly lower at 1.6 per cent in 2019 before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020.

The Swiss economy is booming. Gross domestic product (GDP) for this year is set to rise by an impressive 2.9 per cent. International economic activity is providing a positive stimulus, and the domestic economy is boosting business activity as well. Unemployment is also set to fall as a result of the strong economy. KOF expects the rate of growth to slow slightly to 1.7 per cent next year before GDP growth will likely rebound to 2.1 per cent in 2020.

The Swiss economy is growing quite strongly. KOF predicts that GDP will rise by 2.3% in 2018. This performance is set to continue in 2019, though in a slightly weaker form. The unemployment rate will fall somewhat, and prices will rise only gradually.

The Swiss economy is currently on an upward trajectory. This year it will achieve a relatively high GDP growth rate of 2.5%, and KOF is forecasting fairly robust growth of 1.8% for 2019. However, some of this increase is attributable to license fees received from sporting events, which have little to do with the actual performance of the Swiss economy. The labour market is doing well, with unemployment falling slightly. Inflation is gradually moving into positive territory.