April

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in April for the second month in a row by about 15 points. It thus surpasses its previous historical high, which it reached in the recovery after the financial crisis in the first months of the year 2010. Unless the virus takes another volte, economic development is likely to get a strong boost in the near future.

In April, KOF and Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists on the subjects of state aid during the coronavirus crisis and the future of public finances. They found that there are hardly any economists who think that the debt brake should be applied very rigorously. There is also agreement among the 167 survey respondents that cuts in social security, education and research should be avoided.

The KOF MPC figure for 22 April 2021 is -0.07. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council has reconfirmed the need for a very accommodative monetary policy stance.

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes -  amongst them the ifo Institute in cooperation with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current year and 3.9 percent in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin.  

The Global Economic Barometers increase markedly for the second successive month. This reflects, among other things, the progress in vaccination programs against COVID-19 in various countries and thus the perspective of accelerating the level of global activity in the coming months. This month, all investigated regions improve both their current assessment of the situation and their expectations for the near future.