KOF Economic Barometer: Level falls marginally

The KOF Economic Barometer fell by 0.7 points in March from 98.9 (revised from 100.0). At 98.2, it is now just below its average value of 100, which means that the upward trend observed up to the previous month since the last low in November 2022 (89.3) has not continued. The economic outlook thus remains average.

While the overall barometer reading has hardly changed compared to the previous month, negative signals are coming from the manufacturing, services and construction sectors, although these are at least partly offset by positive developments in the indicator bundle reflecting Swiss exports. In contrast, the other indicators included in the barometer show little change.

In the producing sector (manufacturing and construction), the situation referring to employment and inventories is assessed more negatively than before, while the assessments of new orders and intermediate goods have improved. Obstacles to production are thus evidently still primarily due to recruitment problems in the labour market.

Within manufacturing, the electrical and wood industries are in particular signalling deteriorations, followed by the chemical industry. In contrast, positive signals are coming from the textile and paper industries.