March

Together with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), KOF surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the Swiss banking sector and the takeover of Credit Suisse and received 167 responses. Almost half of the economists would have preferred a takeover by the state (and possible later sale) as a solution. More than two-thirds of the survey participants fear a deterioration in the stability of the Swiss banking sector as a result of the takeover.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell marginally in March. It now points just slightly below its long-term average value. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy has hardly changed compared to the previous month.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will rise by 1.1 per cent in real terms this year and by 1.7 per cent next year. Thanks to the mild winter, the energy crisis has had less of an impact on the economy than was feared. However, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates are slowing economic growth. In addition, the turbulences in the banking sector are causing uncertainty worldwide.

The KOF MPC figure for 16 March 2023 is 0.20. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that there is an elevated level of uncertainty about the inflation outlook.

The Global Barometers rise for the second consecutive month in March 2023, fueled by the favorable evolution in the economic environment of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.