Research Division Macroeconomic Forecasting and Data Science

What we do

Various macroeconometric models of the Swiss economy play a central role in short and medium-term economic forecasts. Equally important are partial models that focus on individual components of the supply and demand side. These analytical approaches are supplemented by leading and coincident indicators, whose data basis is primarily based on the regular KOF economic surveys.

An essential part of the work of our research division consists of regularly providing the specialist public, decision-makers in business and administration and the interested public with information on current and expected economic developments. A comprehensive and adequately prepared database is essential for this. In addition, the theoretical and empirical modeling of economic activity forms another important basis for our work.

The division also uses survey experiments to address various issues precisely. These experimental methods complement the data analysis and contribute significantly to a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic issues.

The Sections of the Division

Section Macroeconomic Forecasting

The Macroeconomic Forecasting section produces the KOF macroeconomic forecasts on a quarterly basis. The results are made available in a detailed report and in an interactive visualization tool. The entire forecast data is also available online. The section also monitors, analyzes and comments on economic policy issues. One focus of observation is on monetary policy, in particular the policy of the Swiss National Bank, inflation expectations and central bank communication.

To this end, various econometric models are regularly updated, reviewed and further developed. In this context, a separate R package for macroeconometric structural models was developed in collaboration with the Macroeconometric Methods Division. This makes it possible to integrate advances and innovations in structural equation models and make them available to other users. A central concern of the section is the precise analysis of the data used in the empirical studies.

Switzerland is a small, open economy that is strongly integrated into international markets. Switzerland's economic development is therefore closely linked to the international economy. The section therefore analyzes and forecasts Swiss foreign trade and the international economy, particularly in the eurozone, in order to assess their impact on Switzerland. In collaboration with the Nowcasting section of the KOF Lab research division, detailed international economic forecasts are produced, particularly for Europe, the USA, China and Japan. These forecasts form an important basis for assessing Switzerland's economic prospects and are published in the external pageKOF Nowcasting Labcall_made and the "KOF International Forecasts", among others.

In addition, the section is responsible for compiling the KOF Globalization Index, which attempts to approximate the development of globalization for over 200 countries.

Section Macroeconometric Methods

The Macroeconometric Methods section develops and implements tools to forecast and analyze macroeconomic variables for the Swiss economy. It combines data science algorithms with empirical macroeconomics. For instance, the section continuously revises and produces the KOF Economic Barometer, a central leading indicator for the Swiss economy.

Processing large amounts of data is a key focus at KOF. The section Macroeconometric Methods places particular emphasis on providing methods that are specifically tailored to the needs of Swiss business cycle analysis. This ensures that the specialist public, decision-makers in the economy and administration, and the interested public have the best possible information on the current and expected course of the Swiss economy.