Press Releases

This year’s round of pay bargaining could be another meagre one in real terms for wage earners. Companies expect to see wages increase by an average of only 2 per cent over the next twelve months. Since they are forecasting inflation of over 2 per cent for the same period, they are not anticipating any real pay increases. This is the result of a KOF survey of almost 9,000 businesses in Switzerland.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell significantly in July. Business activity is less buoyant than it has been for two years. In contrast, upward pressure on prices is decreasing in almost all sectors of the economy. The shortage of skilled workers is no longer quite as acute as it was recently.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell in April. It had hardly moved in the previous month. Performance varied from sector to sector. Although the Swiss economy is faltering slightly, there are also positive signals. Supply chain problems, for example, have largely dissipated and the upward pressure on prices is decreasing.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since it was first introduced in 1992. Its renewed increase is due in particular to the hospitality industry.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise in the third quarter of 2021 and is above the long-term average for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. The upswing is broadly supported: almost all sectors are recording positive employment indicators. Even in the hospitality industry, employment expectations for the next three months are now in positive territory.

The business situation in most sectors has improved slightly. This is shown by the KOF Business Situation Indicator, which has risen significantly for the first time since April. However, the situation remains challenging. 14 per cent of companies believe that their survival is at risk. In terms of economic performance, KOF expects GDP to decline by 4.9 per cent this year. If a second wave of COVID-19 were to occur, GDP would be expected to fall by 6 per cent this year.

In April, the business situation slowed down again. The Business Situation Indicator declined for the fifth consecutive month. With the exception of construction and project engineering sectors, all other sectors have been struggling to sustain their business situation since the beginning of 2019. However, the companies’ expectations for the next six months have not deteriorated any further and are moderately confident. Nevertheless, Swiss economy is facing a difficult environment.

Growth in total capital spending in Switzerland will decline this year. This is among the findings of the twice-yearly KOF Investment Survey of over 14,000 companies. Although survey respondents plan to raise their capital expenditure further in 2019, the rate of increase will be lower than in recent years

The KOF Business Situation Indicator has started the new year in negative territory, falling for the second consecutive month. Firms’ expectations about their business going forward are less optimistic than they were. Nonetheless, they are predominantly confident about their future operating performance. Although the Swiss economy therefore remains in good shape at the beginning of 2019, companies are facing increasingly strong headwinds

The KOF business situation is barely any different in October compared to the previous month. This means that the business situation of Swiss companies has not changed significantly since July of this year. Optimism on the part of companies regarding future business trends has fallen back slightly. The Swiss economy is continuing to ride high, although with slightly less of a tail wind.

While rationalisation was the main investment motive for Swiss companies after the suspension of the minimum exchange rate in 2015, it has come to play a very minor role in this year’s investment decisions. Thanks to the favourable economic trend, companies predominantly plan to invest in capacity expansion. According to the current KOF Investment Survey, investments will go up 8% this year.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator edged back up in April after having dipped slightly in the previous month. Overall, therefore, the Indicator has stabilised around the highest level it has reached since 2014. The Swiss economy’s upward trajectory is intact.

The Swiss electorate will be voting on 10 June 2018 on the popular initiative “For Crisis-proof Money: Money Creation only by the Swiss National Bank!” (Sovereign Money Initiative). In collaboration with SRF, KOF asked research economists in Switzerland what they think of the initiative. While the majority of survey respondents reject this proposal, they concede that there is need for action when it comes to financial stability.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose further in January, continuing on its upward trajectory after a brief pause last autumn. The companies that took part in the KOF survey are confident regarding business development over the next six months. All in all, Swiss companies are getting off to a strong start in 2018.

Companies in Switzerland plan to increase their investment activities by some eight percent in 2018. Specifically, they want to increase not only their capital investments, but their expansion investments as well. This trend reflects the current health of the Swiss economy. These findings and more are the results of the KOF’s latest investment survey.