KOF Business Situation: Indicator Still on the Rise

In February, the Business Situation indicator went up in the majority of the surveyed sectors (see table T 1). The rising tendency of the previous months continued in the manufacturing industry. In the project engineering sector and the retail trade, the indicator recovered after a decline in the preceding month. Only the construction industry and the financial and insurance service providers did not see a continuation of the positive trend in January, and the respective indicators hardly changed in February. Wholesalers, hotel and catering businesses and the other service providers were last surveyed in January. At the time, all three sectors reported an improvement in their business situation.

From a regional perspective, the Business Situation Indicator has risen in all of the main BFS regions (see graph G 7). In Eastern Switzerland, Central Switzerland and in the Zurich Region, the positive business situation improved even further. North-West Switzerland recorded a substantial increase in the Business Situation Indicator, which also advanced in the Ticino and Lake Geneva regions. By contrast, the rise in the indicator in Espace Mittelland was hardly noticeable.

Explanation

Graph G 6 presents the KOF business situation across all sectors covered by the survey. The business situation in sectors which are surveyed on a quarterly basis is kept constant during the intervening months.

Graph G 7 presents the business situation in the main regions according to the Federal Statistics Office. The regions are coloured according to business situation. The arrows in the regions indicate the change in the business situation compared to the previous month. An upward-pointing arrow, for instance, indicates that the situation has improved over the previous month.

The KOF business situation is based on more than 4,500 reports from businesses in Switzerland. Each month businesses are surveyed in the economic sectors of industry, retail trade, construction, project engineering and financial and insurance services. Businesses in the hotel and catering sector, wholesalers and other service providers are surveyed quarterly in the first month of each quarter. Businesses are requested, amongst other things, to assess their current business situation. They may class their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “bad”. The balance of the current business situation is the percentage difference between the answers “good” and “bad”.