No. 178, November

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell in October for the second month in a row (see chart G5). Following a modest decline in the previous month, business activity cooled significantly in October. By contrast, companies’ business expectations for the coming six months are almost unchanged and more or less average on a medium-term comparison.  

Switzerland’s population is ageing. This article attempts to qualitatively assess the impact that this trend has on inflation. Its immediate effects are likely to be moderate. At the same time, there are risks: inflation could turn out to be higher but, surprisingly, it could also be lower.

In today’s ever-changing global economy, clear and effective communication by central banks is crucial to build trust in their policies and manage public expectations. A new study by researchers at KOF and ETH uses an experiment to investigate how central banks influence inflation expectations through different media formats and which communication formats are most effective.

Central banks shape global financial markets through their carefully crafted speeches. Words often trigger immediate market reactions and provide a more timely signal than many regularly updated economic indicators. When compiling its analysis, KOF uses natural language processing to decode indicators from central bank transcripts that make it possible to replicate and predict market movements in a timely manner.