Nr. 180, Januar

The KOF Business Situation Indicator hardly changed in December (see chart G13). Its rapid decline, which lasted from the beginning of 2023 into October, has slowed for the time being. The Swiss economy is currently sluggish.

As in many other countries, wealth concentration in Switzerland has increased in recent decades and remains high. At the same time, taxes have regularly been reduced over the last 50 years. Wealth tax cuts explain around a quarter of the observed growth in wealth concentration. This means that there are other key drivers of wealth inequality besides taxes.

How did the Swiss fare during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data from Dargebotene Hand and Swisscom, analysis conducted by Marc Anderes and Stefan Pichler shows that calls to the Dargebotene Hand helpline increased significantly just after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Restrictive monetary policy, falling but still high inflation and multiple uncertainties will continue to slow the global economy this year. According to the KOF Economic Forecast, worldwide business activity will not pick up again until 2025.

Alexis Perakis, monetary policy expert at KOF, talks in this interview about his predictions for inflation, interest rates and the Swiss franc exchange rate this year. He considers the current debate about interest-rate cuts to be premature.