Press Releases

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer remains at an almost unchanged level and stands now at 95.8 points. It thus remains slightly below its long-term average. Together with the small movements of the Barometer since the summer, this indicates a weak but stable development of the Swiss economy towards the end of this year.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly again in August and thus settled at the below average level observed since May. At 91.1 points, the barometer continues to signal below-average development. Accordingly, the Swiss economy has to expect a somewhat unfavourable economic situation in the near future.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose significantly in January. While firms’ business had deteriorated in the autumn, a clearly positive trend was visible in January. The operating outlook for the coming months is more encouraging than before.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises at an accelerated pace in January and for the second month in a row. It nonetheless remains below its medium-term average. But the outlook for the Swiss economy at the beginning of the year is considerably less gloomy than it was in autumn last year.

The KOF Economic Barometer increased significantly in December and now stands at 92.2 points. This is the first time the barometer has risen after a prolonged downturn. The outlook for the Swiss economy is thus brightening slightly for the beginning of 2023, although remaining at a low level.

KOF is forecasting that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 per cent this year. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects real gross domestic product adjusted for sporting events to rise by 1 per cent next year. Uncertainty about gas supplies during the winter has increased sharply throughout Europe. KOF’s baseline scenario assumes, however, that there will be no formal rationing on a major scale here.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell by 4.0 points in August and now stands at 86.5. This is quite considerably below its long-term average. Accordingly, for the near future the outlook for the Swiss economy appears less than encouraging.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly in February and now stands at 105 points. This is still to some extent higher than the long-term average. The normalisation since the most recent peak in May 2021 is thus proceeding. The economic situation should therefore continue to develop positively.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2000. Its further increase is mainly due to manufacturing and the wholesale sector. In the hospitality industry, on the other hand, the employment outlook has deteriorated somewhat.

The KOF Economic Barometer moved only very little in January. It increased slightly again after an even smaller decline in the previous month. This means that the barometer value has hardly changed since November. Presently, the economic outlook is above average, although the omicron wave could still have a negative impact.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2008. The renewed increase is mainly due to the larger number of companies that consider their current staffing levels to be too low. The labour market situation in the hospitality industry has improved particularly strongly.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines for the fourth time in a row in September and now stands at 110.6 points. However, the Barometer remains above its long-term average. The recovery of the Swiss economy in the wake of the pandemic is thus slowing somewhat but is likely to continue in the upcoming months.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose sharply in July. For the first time, Swiss companies’ business activity is now better than it was at the start of 2020. Survey respondents are confident about developments going forward and see fewer uncertainties than they did at the beginning of the year. This optimistic assessment by firms is consistent with KOF’s latest calculations.

The recovery has arrived - faster and stronger than previously expected. According to KOF’s economic forecast, gross domestic product will rise by 4 per cent this year. KOF expects to see growth of 2.8 per cent for 2022. Switzerland's economic output should already exceed its pre-crisis level in the current quarter thanks to strong growth in value added.

The KOF Economic Barometer once again reaches a historical high. The slight decline that the barometer underwent in the second half of 2020 has been replaced by continuing strong increases in the spring of this year. Once again, the barometer is well above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the middle of 2021 can be regarded as very positive, provided that the containment of the virus continues to progress.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in April for the second month in a row by about 15 points. It thus surpasses its previous historical high, which it reached in the recovery after the financial crisis in the first months of the year 2010. Unless the virus takes another volte, economic development is likely to get a strong boost in the near future.

Coronavirus will continue to set the tone for economic activity around the world, across Europe and in Switzerland this year. According to the KOF Economic Forecast, the economy in Switzerland will gradually recover and return to its pre-crisis levels in the third quarter. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects gross domestic product to grow by 3.0 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged at the end of the year. The sharp declines that the barometer underwent in early 2020 have been offset by a rapid recovery during the summer. The barometer already reached a value above its long-term average again in August and was able to maintain this level during the second half of the year. However, the prospects for the Swiss economy remain subdued at the beginning of 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic.

KOF expects GDP to fall by 3.5 per cent this year (baseline scenario). For 2021 and 2022 it expects to see growth of 3.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively. The second wave of the pandemic is placing a strain on the labour market. Employment is likely to stagnate in the winter half-year, and historically low wage increases are expected for the next two years. The number of companies that believe their survival is at risk has risen again.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose significantly in October. When asked about the level of demand going forward, however, some sectors became more cautious over the course of the month. Specific questions on the COVID-19 pandemic reveal that currently around 10 per cent of the businesses surveyed fear for their survival. In the hospitality industry this figure is as high as one in three firms. More than 60 per cent of companies are suffering from weaker demand.

Although the situation in the tourism industry has improved since the summer, this sector is now facing severe headwinds again. KOF expects around one-third fewer European guests to come to Switzerland in the winter season than last year. Tourists from overseas markets will mainly stay away. The total number of overnight stays is likely to fall by 30 per cent this winter. The sector is expected to suffer a loss of more than 10 billion Swiss francs for the 2020 tourism year as a whole.

The easing of the pandemic situation in the summer improved the outlook for economic activity. However, the rising number of new infections has heightened uncertainty again. KOF has therefore constructed two scenarios for the economy going forward. Under its baseline scenario it expects GDP to contract by 3.6 per cent this year (2021: growth of 3.2 per cent). If the pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, however, GDP is forecast to fall by 4.9 per cent (2021: growth of 1.5 per cent).

The KOF economic barometer rose sharply in August, now for the third month in a row. The plus was almost the same as in the previous month, when the barometer showed the strongest monthly increase since the beginning of the calculated values in the early 1990s. The crash in the spring of this year was, however, also the worst in the history of the barometer. According to this, the Swiss economy is in the upswing phase of what appears for the time being a V-shaped recession.

Due to the coronavirus crisis, a pronounced weakness in investment is becoming increasingly apparent, making it difficult to return to strong economic activity. The ETH researchers Hans Gersbach, Heiner Mikosch and Jan-Egbert Sturm therefore propose to extent the COVID-19 lending programme, focusing on investment and gradually reducing government guarantees. This can accelerate the economic recovery without placing a heavy burden on the public finances.

In May, the KOF Economic Barometer reaches the lowest value in its history. After the exceptionally strong decline in April, the Barometer falls again, but at 6.5 points, the minus is much smaller than in the previous month. The rapid decrease of the last three months is more pronounced than, for example, during the financial crisis in 2008/2009. The Swiss economy is in a sharp recession.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in April more than ever before in its history. Within a very short period of time, it thus drops to a level (63.5 points) comparable to the 2009 financial crisis. Only in the first three months of 2009 the barometer values were still slightly lower than at present. The Swiss economy is in crisis mode.

Using four scenarios, KOF has calculated the short-term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the most positive scenario, Switzerland must expect to lose CHF 22 billion in value added between March and June. In the most negative scenario, this loss rises to 35 billion francs. The high costs are largely driven by international developments.

The Swiss government has taken initial measures to cushion the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. However, companies will still have to bear costs such as rent, leases or interest payments. These capital costs are not covered by the current package. They should be partially reimbursed to companies through existing channels. This is what ETH professors Hans Gersbach and Jan-Egbert Sturm are proposing.

Growth in total capital spending in Switzerland will decline this year. This is among the findings of the twice-yearly KOF Investment Survey of over 14,000 companies. Although survey respondents plan to raise their capital expenditure further in 2019, the rate of increase will be lower than in recent years

The KOF Business Situation Indicator has started the new year in negative territory, falling for the second consecutive month. Firms’ expectations about their business going forward are less optimistic than they were. Nonetheless, they are predominantly confident about their future operating performance. Although the Swiss economy therefore remains in good shape at the beginning of 2019, companies are facing increasingly strong headwinds

Despite the fact that growth in GDP for the third quarter of 2018 was negative, the Swiss economy remains in fairly good shape on the whole. KOF expects GDP to rise by 2.6 per cent in 2018. Consumer spending will become a key driver of economic activity over the forecast period. Unemployment will continue to fall owing to the robust performance of the economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP growth will be slightly lower at 1.6 per cent in 2019 before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020.

The KOF business situation is barely any different in October compared to the previous month. This means that the business situation of Swiss companies has not changed significantly since July of this year. Optimism on the part of companies regarding future business trends has fallen back slightly. The Swiss economy is continuing to ride high, although with slightly less of a tail wind.